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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Flyers
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:21AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay
Indoor
Tue 25 Nov 2025, 12:00AM
2
Game Picks
1
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Philadelphia Flyers (Moneyline)
For Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL), model win probability 61.6%, fair odds 1.62, book price +140, model edge +19.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 25 Nov 2025, 12:00AM at Benchmark International Arena.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Flyers
+140
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia FlyersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Flyers

  • Nikita Grebenkin RWOut
  • Noah Cates LWOut
  • Owen Tippett RWOut

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut
Availability updated May 14, 3:10PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 4 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability4 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning Saves 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Philadelphia FlyersNo line posted

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LinePhiladelphia Flyers +1.5No line posted
10-2ATS (puck line) record

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning total-goals model lean and scoring trends (no settled over/under record yet).

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers hockey action. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Andrei Vasilevskiy. Check out NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers stats and odds.</p>

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) Over 22.5 Saves (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Andrei Vasilevskiy for Over 22.5 in the 'Player Total Saves' market is driven by his recent consistent performance and the model's prediction. Vasilevskiy has been averaging 22.4 saves in his last 5 home games, just shy of the 22.5 line. However, looking at his overall last 5 games, his average saves marginally increase to 22.8. Additionally, he has a current hit streak of 2 games both in home games and overall, further highlighting his consistent performance. The model's prediction of 24.54, which is above the line set by the bookmaker, underscores the likelihood of Vasilevskiy achieving over 22.5 saves. The prediction also falls within one standard deviation (7.49), indicating a reasonable level of confidence in the outcome. All these factors combined make a strong case for betting on Vasilevskiy to make over 22.5

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 November 2025 at Benchmark International Arena. The model has generated 2 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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