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Philadelphia Flyers
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions

Model updated Oct 5, 2:06AM UTC

Our model graded 6 markets for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning and backs Under 5.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $202.

NHL
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay
Indoor
Mon 5 Oct 2026, 11:00PM
6
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 5.5 Total Goals +102

The model graded 6 markets for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $202 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 5 Oct 2026, 11:00PM at Benchmark International Arena.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win55.1%
The price says49.5%
Best price+102
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Goals Under 5.5 Lean55% chance +102
3-Way Moneyline Members only Long-shot38% chance Members
Spread Members only High68% chance Members
Total Goals Members only High99% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean42% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NHL game on today's board →
Tampa Bay Lightning are the model's favourite to beat Philadelphia Flyers, with a 58% chance to win. Kick-off Mon 5 Oct, 11:00PM at Benchmark International Arena. Best bet: Under 5.5 at +102.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 30 bookmakers compared
Winner
Flyers2.78+178Kalshi
Lightning1.54-185betPARX
Total goals
Over5.51.83-120PointsBet
Under5.52.17+117Kalshi

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning odds by bookmaker

30 books · best price in green
BookFlyers winLightning winLightning -1.5Over 5.5Under 5.5
Bally Bet2.55+1551.54-1852.38+1381.76-1322.06+106
BetMGM2.65+1651.50-2002.18+118——
BetOnline2.71+1711.51-1962.35+1351.80-1252.09+109
betPARX2.55+1551.54-1852.38+1381.76-1322.06+106
BetRivers2.55+1551.54-1852.38+1381.76-1322.06+106
BetUS2.67+1671.51-1962.35+1351.80-1252.05+105
Bovada2.73+1731.49-2042.30+130——
Courtside2.63+1631.53-1892.30+1301.83-1202.04+104
DraftKings2.60+1601.52-1922.30+1301.82-1222.02+102
ESPN BET2.70+1701.50-2002.25+1251.77-1302.10+110
Fanatics2.65+1651.50-2002.30+1301.80-1252.05+105
FanDuel2.64+1641.50-2002.28+1281.78-1282.04+104
Hard Rock Bet2.60+1601.53-1892.30+1301.77-1302.05+105
Kalshi2.78+1781.54-1862.38+1381.82-1222.17+117

Since the market opened: Lightning to win opened 1.54, best now 1.54; the over 5.5 opened 1.79, best now 1.87 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Goals
Under
5.5
+102
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia Flyers3-Way MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia FlyersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia FlyersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Philadelphia Flyers on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Philadelphia Flyers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Philadelphia Flyers
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Flyers

  • Nikita Grebenkin RWDay-to-day
  • Rasmus Ristolainen DDay-to-day
  • Helge Grans DOut
  • Denver Barkey COut

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Emil Lilleberg DDay-to-day
  • Yanni Gourde COut
  • Dominic James COut
Availability updated Oct 4, 12:31PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Same game parlay

Written 5 Oct

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction & Same Game Parlay picks (Top SGP): Smart Betting Angles

On Monday 5 October 2026, Tampa Bay Lightning play Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Philadelphia Flyers +1.5, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Lightning play Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL. The bet we are looking at is Philadelphia Flyers +1.5. That is a Spread bet. It was priced at -175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers: Under 5.5 Total Goals (+102)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Lightning play Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL. The bet we are looking at is Under 5.5 Total Goals. It was priced at +102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers win (+145)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Lightning play Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL. The bet we are looking at is Philadelphia Flyers win. That is a Head to Head bet. It was priced at +145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Tampa Bay Lightning v Philadelphia Flyers. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineModel leans Philadelphia Flyers+145
0-5last 5 record
GF/G1.4GA/G4.0Shots/G19.6vs Lightning0-5

Model leans Philadelphia Flyers to win, a 42% moneyline pick over Tampa Bay Lightning.

Puck LinePhiladelphia Flyers +1.5+1.5 -175
68%model cover %
11-1Free board · puck line
L50-5GF/G1.4GA/G4.0Shots/G19.6vs Lightning0-5

Model backs Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 on the puck line, a 68% cover vs Tampa Bay Lightning.

Total GoalsGame totalU 5.5 +102
55%model under %

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning U 5.5 goals — model 55% under.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning — 6 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent results

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Flyers have won 1 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–1WSHHome
L1–5NYRAway
W3–2FLAAway
L3–5FLAHome
L2–3NSHAway
Philadelphia Flyers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3CARHome
L2–3NJAway
L0–7PITHome
L1–5WSHHome
W2–0BOSHome

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Tampa Bay Lightning won 2, Philadelphia Flyers won 0.

DateTampa Bay LightningPhiladelphia FlyersWinner
Jan 1351Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 1172Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Emil Lilleberg DDAY-TO-DAY
Yanni Gourde COUT
Dominic James COUT
Philadelphia Flyers
PlayerStatus
Nikita Grebenkin RWDAY-TO-DAY
Rasmus Ristolainen DDAY-TO-DAY
Helge Grans DOUT
Denver Barkey COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning — where the money went

Since betting opened on Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, the market has moved away from Philadelphia Flyers across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Philadelphia Flyers▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Tampa Bay Lightning▲ Money came for this
Spread — Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Philadelphia Flyers 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 5.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 5.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning — model preview

Deep dive into Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers hockey action. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Andrei Vasilevskiy. Check out NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers stats and odds.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) Over 22.5 Saves (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Andrei Vasilevskiy for Over 22.5 in the 'Player Total Saves' market is driven by his recent consistent performance and the model's prediction. Vasilevskiy has been averaging 22.4 saves in his last 5 home games, just shy of the 22.5 line. However, looking at his overall last 5 games, his average saves marginally increase to 22.8. Additionally, he has a current hit streak of 2 games both in home games and overall, further highlighting his consistent performance. The model's prediction of 24.54, which is above the line set by the bookmaker, underscores the likelihood of Vasilevskiy achieving over 22.5 saves. The prediction also falls within one standard deviation (7.49), indicating a reasonable level of confidence in the outcome. All these factors combined make a strong case for betting on Vasilevskiy to make over 22.5

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Flyers vs Lightning, or as Lightning vs Flyers. The next scheduled game is Monday 5 October 2026 at Benchmark International Arena. The model has generated 6 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Lightning 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers1–5Tampa Bay Lightning
11 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers2–7Tampa Bay Lightning

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