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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Samuel Ersson is Over 21.5 on Saves.
On the Saves market the model assigns a model win probability of 58%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
NHL

Samuel Ersson

Philadelphia Flyers

+1.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Saves Over 21.5 -132 (1.76)
+1.2% Edge
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, FUT · Indoor
Sun 11 Jan, 12:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
58.0%
Implied Probability
56.8%
Model Edge
+1.2%
Predicted Value
23.6 Saves

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Saves58.0%56.8%1.72+1.2%

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AI Analysis

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Samuel Ersson (Philadelphia Flyers) Over 21.5 Saves (-132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Samuel Ersson for over 21.5 in the 'Player Total Saves' market is backed by several significant statistics. Firstly, the model prediction of 23.55 indicates that Ersson is anticipated to make more saves than the line of 21.5. Additionally, his average number of saves in the last five home games is close to the line at 21. This suggests that his performance is consistently around this mark, and slightly improved performance would result in beating the line. The 'Shotsagainst' average of 23.6 also implies that Ersson has plenty of opportunities to make saves. Finally, the hit rate in the last 15 home games is quite high at 10/15, indicating that more often than not, Ersson exceeds the line. Therefore, these combined factors present a strong case for betting on Ersson to make over 21.5 saves in the game against Tampa Bay Lightning.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
SavesModel read - latest listed matchupNo line posted
23.6projected saves (model)
Line21.5Model proj23.6Last oppTBLListed2

Samuel Ersson (Philadelphia Flyers) NHL Saves: BetBetter's model projects 23.6 saves against a market line of 21.5 vs TBL. 2 matchups tracked. No upcoming NHL line is posted for this market right now.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Samuel Ersson (Philadelphia Flyers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Samuel Ersson is Over 21.5 on Saves. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers on Sunday 11 January at Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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