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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
Philadelphia Flyers

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Indoor
Fri 9 Jan 2026, 12:00AM
2
Game Picks
1
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Toronto Maple Leafs (Moneyline)
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers (NHL), model win probability 69.5%, fair odds 1.44, book price -120, model edge +14.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 9 Jan 2026, 12:00AM at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Toronto Maple Leafs
-120
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinesPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

Philadelphia Flyers

  • Nikita Grebenkin RWOut
  • Noah Cates LWOut
  • Owen Tippett RWOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Dan Vladar Philadelphia Flyers Saves 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Philadelphia FlyersNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LinePhiladelphia Flyers +1.5No line posted
10-2ATS (puck line) record

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers total-goals model lean and scoring trends (no settled over/under record yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs? We break down NHL odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Dan Vladar. Explore NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.</p>

Dan Vladar (Philadelphia Flyers) Over 14.5 Saves (-588)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Dan Vladar for Over 14.5 in the 'Player Total Saves (Alternate)' market is supported mainly by his consistent performance data and the model's prediction. Based on his last five (L5) home games, Vladar has an average of 19.4 saves per game, which is well above the line set at 14.5. Additionally, Vladar’s L5 overall average for saves is 22, further illustrating his reliability in exceeding the bet line. His current hit streak in home games is impressive at 22 games, and he has a perfect hit rate in his last 20 games, both overall and at home. Furthermore, the model's prediction of 24.53 saves is significantly higher than the line, suggesting a strong likelihood of Vladar hitting the Over. This consistent performance trend and model prediction indicate a strong rationale for betting Over 14.5 on Dan Vladar's total saves.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 9 January 2026 at Xfinity Mobile Arena. The model has generated 2 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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