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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
Philadelphia Flyers

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:49PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Indoor
Fri 9 Jan 2026, 12:00AM
2
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Toronto Maple Leafs (Moneyline)
The model graded 3 markets for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $183 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 69.5%, fair odds 1.44, book price -120, model edge +14.8%. Tip-off Fri 9 Jan 2026, 12:00AM at Xfinity Mobile Arena.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Toronto Maple Leafs
-120
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinesPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

Philadelphia Flyers

  • Noah Cates LWOut
  • Owen Tippett RWOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Dan Vladar Philadelphia Flyers Saves 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Philadelphia FlyersNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LinePhiladelphia Flyers +1.5No line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers — 2 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Who’s out or in doubt

6 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Flyers
PlayerStatus
Noah Cates LWOUT
Owen Tippett RWOUT
Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Calle Jarnkrok COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers — model preview

Winning bets for Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs? We break down NHL odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Dan Vladar. Explore NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.

Dan Vladar (Philadelphia Flyers) Over 14.5 Saves (-588)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Dan Vladar for Over 14.5 in the 'Player Total Saves (Alternate)' market is supported mainly by his consistent performance data and the model's prediction. Based on his last five (L5) home games, Vladar has an average of 19.4 saves per game, which is well above the line set at 14.5. Additionally, Vladar’s L5 overall average for saves is 22, further illustrating his reliability in exceeding the bet line. His current hit streak in home games is impressive at 22 games, and he has a perfect hit rate in his last 20 games, both overall and at home. Furthermore, the model's prediction of 24.53 saves is significantly higher than the line, suggesting a strong likelihood of Vladar hitting the Over. This consistent performance trend and model prediction indicate a strong rationale for betting Over 14.5 on Dan Vladar's total saves.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Leafs vs Flyers, or as Flyers vs Leafs. The most recent game between them was Friday 9 January 2026 at Xfinity Mobile Arena. The model has generated 2 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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