On Monday 28 September 2026, Newcastle United play Aston Villa in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Goals, priced at -556 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-556)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Newcastle United prepares to host Aston Villa, the stage is set for a thrilling encounter that suggests plenty of action. Newcastle has shown a knack for finding the back of the net at home, averaging 2.4 goals in their last five matches on St. James' Park. Their attacking prowess is underscored by an impressive 12.2 shots per game, with 4.8 of those hitting the target. On the flip side, Aston Villa has been no slouch either, managing to score 1.4 goals per game away despite some recent struggles. Both teams have a historical tendency to share the spoils in high-scoring affairs, evidenced by their last five matchups producing a combined average of over two goals. With both sides eager to secure points and their recent form hinting at attacking football, betting on over 1.5 goals feels like a savvy move.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa +0.75 Goal Handicap (-196)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Aston Villa heads to St. James' Park, there’s a compelling case for backing them with a 0.75 handicap. Despite the recent form showing a mixed bag for both teams, Villa has shown resilience, especially away, with a decent scoring average of 1.4 goals per game on the road. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s home defense has been shaky, conceding an average of 1.4 goals against at home, which plays into Villa’s hands. What stands out is Villa's ability to create chances, averaging 12.8 shots per game away from home. With Newcastle’s xG numbers lagging, this match could tip in Villa's favor. Historically, their recent encounters have been competitive, and with Villa having won two of the last five meetings, this adds to their confidence. Taking Aston Villa at a 0.75 handicap seems like a savvy move, especially given the current trends.

That is how our model reads Newcastle United v Aston Villa. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article