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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Green is Under 22.5 on Pts + Asts.
On the Pts + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +20.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
NBA

Jalen Green

Phoenix Suns

+20.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Asts Under 22.5 -104 (1.96)
+20.4% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
71.4%
Implied Probability
51.0%
Model Edge
+20.4%
Predicted Value
18.9 Pts + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Asts71.4%—51.0%1.40+20.4%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) Under 22.5 Points + Assists (-104)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phoenix Suns gear up to face the Golden State Warriors, Jalen Green's prop bet for under 22.5 combined points and assists is looking enticing. In his last five games, Green has averaged around 20 points and just 2.8 assists, which places him well below our target. Historically, he's managed only 9.6 points against the Warriors, which dips to 14.6 when playing at home. While he's had flashes of brilliance, Green's recent form shows a trend of struggling to break through that 22.5 mark. His home stats reflect a similar narrative, with his average points and assists sitting at 20.4 and 2.4 respectively. With the Warriors' defense tightening up, it's hard to envision Green surpassing that threshold. With a solid hit rate of 2 out of his last 3 home games hitting under, it's a wager that feels both safe and compelling.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.5avg · last 10
L51.0Szn2.8Home2.8Away2.8Best8
1+89%
2+66%
3+54%
4+36%
5+21%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 1.5 · hi 8 · lo 0
1100811210

Jalen Green is averaging 1.5 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.8, best 8). He clears 3+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
2.8avg · last 10
L52.4Szn3.4Home3.4Away3.4Best13
1+97%
3+61%
5+28%
7+4%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.8 · hi 6 · lo 1
3322651231

Jalen Green is averaging 2.8 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.4, best 13). He clears 3+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
10.7avg · last 10
L59.6Szn20.4Home20.6Away20.2Best42
10+82%
15+66%
20+55%
25+37%
30+17%
Game log vs O 19.5avg 10.7 · hi 38 · lo 2
5727389811128

Jalen Green is averaging 10.7 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.4, best 42). He clears 20+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
13.5avg · last 10
L512.0Szn23.8Home24.0Away23.5Best48
14+83%
19+65%
24+53%
29+31%
34+17%
Game log vs O 23.5avg 13.5 · hi 44 · lo 4
810494414913159

Jalen Green is averaging 13.5 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 23.8, best 48). He clears 24+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
15.1avg · last 10
L514.8Szn25.1Home25.3Away24.8Best52
15+83%
20+66%
25+55%
30+37%
35+20%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 15.1 · hi 42 · lo 4
511415421511191712

Jalen Green is averaging 15.1 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.1, best 52). He clears 25+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
17.9avg · last 10
L517.2Szn28.5Home28.8Away28.2Best55
18+82%
23+69%
28+57%
33+37%
38+20%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 17.9 · hi 48 · lo 6
814617482012212013

Jalen Green is averaging 17.9 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.5, best 55). He clears 28+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
4.4avg · last 10
L55.2Szn4.7Home4.7Away4.6Best14
1+98%
3+80%
5+46%
7+25%
9+7%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.4 · hi 8 · lo 0
0428463854

Jalen Green is averaging 4.4 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.7, best 14). He clears 5+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
7.2avg · last 10
L57.6Szn8.1Home8.1Away8.0Best24
2+99%
5+85%
8+54%
11+20%
14+8%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 7.2 · hi 11 · lo 3
37410101141085

Jalen Green is averaging 7.2 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.1, best 24). He clears 8+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts 22.5 Under -104 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts 26.5 Under -204 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Points 22.5 Under -238 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Points — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Points — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Green is Under 22.5 on Pts + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.4% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns on Saturday 18 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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