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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Williams is Over 21.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 58%, versus the book's implied 43%, for a model edge of +15.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 4:40PM UTC
NBA

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder

+15.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 21.5 +132 (2.32)
+15.2% Edge
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:00PM
DAY-TO-DAY
Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs.
updated Jun 16, 2:43PM UTC · 35d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
58.3%
Implied Probability
43.1%
Model Edge
+15.2%
Predicted Value
22.9 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs58.3%—43.1%1.72+15.2%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (+132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Thunder host the Jazz, Jalen Williams stands out as a prime candidate to surpass 21.5 combined points and rebounds. Playing at home, he's been a force, averaging 17.6 points and 4 rebounds in his last five games at the Paycom Center. Against Utah, he's not just good-he's exceptional, dropping an average of 22.6 points per game in their recent matchups. His consistency has been impressive, with a 5 out of 7 hit rate over his last seven games and a solid 4 out of 6 at home. The home crowd can elevate his performance further, and given that his expected stat value is 22.94, the Over bet feels like a smart play. Jalen's ability to shine against the Jazz makes this a compelling opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on his rising trajectory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
21.9avg · last 10
L518.6Szn21.2Home20.4Away22.1Best41
11+96%
16+83%
21+45%
26+26%
31+9%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 21.9 · hi 33 · lo 10
33202426231617321018

Jalen Williams is averaging 21.9 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.2, best 41). He clears 21+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
27.0avg · last 10
L523.6Szn26.3Home25.2Away27.4Best48
16+95%
21+81%
26+50%
31+29%
36+11%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 27 · hi 38 · lo 15
38262931282024371522

Jalen Williams is averaging 27.0 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.3, best 48). He clears 26+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
27.3avg · last 10
L523.8Szn26.5Home25.8Away27.2Best47
16+94%
21+86%
26+50%
31+26%
36+13%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 27.3 · hi 40 · lo 13
40253032272321351327

Jalen Williams is averaging 27.3 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.5, best 47). He clears 26+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
32.4avg · last 10
L528.8Szn31.5Home30.6Away32.5Best54
22+91%
27+78%
32+41%
37+25%
42+13%
Game log vs O 31.5avg 32.4 · hi 45 · lo 18
45313537322728401831

Jalen Williams is averaging 32.4 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 31.5, best 54). He clears 32+ in 41% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
10.5avg · last 10
L510.2Szn10.3Home10.2Away10.4Best21
4+99%
7+94%
10+54%
13+23%
16+5%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 10.5 · hi 13 · lo 8
12111111911118813

Jalen Williams is averaging 10.5 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.3, best 21). He clears 10+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
1.5avg · last 10
L51.2Szn1.6Home1.6Away1.5Best6
1+75%
2+51%
3+23%
4+8%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.5 · hi 3 · lo 0
3312020031

Jalen Williams is averaging 1.5 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.6, best 6). He clears 2+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs 21.5 Over +132 ✗ MISS
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Points 11.5 Over -161 ✗ MISS
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs 12.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Points — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Williams is Over 21.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.2% on this pick. Their next game is Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday 5 April at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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