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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Williams is Over 21.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 58%, implied 43%, edge +15.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 7:31PM UTC
NBA

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder

+15.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 21.5 +132 (2.32) · $100→$232
+15.2% Edge
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:00PM
DAY-TO-DAY
Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs.
updated Jun 16, 2:43PM UTC · 57d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
22.9 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 58.3% · the book's price implies 43.1% · gap +15.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs58.3%43.1%1.72+15.2%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (+132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Thunder host the Jazz, Jalen Williams stands out as a prime candidate to surpass 21.5 combined points and rebounds. Playing at home, he's been a force, averaging 17.6 points and 4 rebounds in his last five games at the Paycom Center. Against Utah, he's not just good-he's exceptional, dropping an average of 22.6 points per game in their recent matchups. His consistency has been impressive, with a 5 out of 7 hit rate over his last seven games and a solid 4 out of 6 at home. The home crowd can elevate his performance further, and given that his expected stat value is 22.94, the Over bet feels like a smart play. Jalen's ability to shine against the Jazz makes this a compelling opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on his rising trajectory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jalen Williams — 2024-25 season averages

Over 80 games in the 2024-25 season, Jalen Williams averaged 21.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists in 32.4 minutes per game, shooting 47.8% from the field and 34.9% from three-point range.

21.2
PPG
5.3
RPG
5.1
APG
1.6
SPG
0.7
BPG
32.4
MPG
47.8%
FG%
34.9%
3P%

Jalen Williams — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jalen Williams has played 35.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

35.6
MPG (L5)
18.6
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jalen Williams — home vs away scoring

At home Jalen Williams averages 20.4 points per game; on the road, 22.1. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.4
PPG at home
22.1
PPG on the road

Jalen Williams — scoring by opponent

Jalen Williams scores most against the POR, averaging 21.1 points per game in that matchup.

21.1
POR
20.6
UTAH
20.3
SA
20.0
LAL
19.1
NO
18.9
GS

Jalen Williams — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Williams has averaged 21.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Mayvs DEN381894
11 May@ DEN331035
9 May@ DEN433235
7 Mayvs DEN261747
5 Mayvs DEN381674
26 Apr@ MEM382345
24 Apr@ MEM372665
22 Aprvs MEM352465
20 Aprvs MEM262056
9 Apr@ PHX363375
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Williams is Over 21.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.2% on this pick. Their next game is Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday 5 April at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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