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Model picks & player props
Toronto Raptors
VS
Miami Heat

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
4
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Miami Heat -5.5 (Point Spread)
For Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat (NBA), model win probability 69.0%, fair odds 1.45, book price -118, model edge +14.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Point Spread
Miami Heat
-5.5
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Miami HeatPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto RaptorsPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto RaptorsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Raptors

  • Nate Bittle CDay-to-day
  • Alijah Martin GDay-to-day
  • Allen Graves FDay-to-day
  • Chucky Hepburn GDay-to-day
  • Collin Murray-Boyles FDay-to-day
  • Brandon Ingram FDay-to-day
  • Immanuel Quickley GDay-to-day

Miami Heat

  • Trevor Keels GDay-to-day
  • Jahmir Young GDay-to-day
  • Ryan Conwell GDay-to-day
  • Myron Gardner FDay-to-day
  • Dru Smith GDay-to-day
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo FDay-to-day
  • Bam Adebayo CDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 11:38PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsToronto Raptors @ Miami HeatNo line posted

Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMiami Heat spreadNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) meet Toronto Raptors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMiami Heat to winNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) host or visit Toronto Raptors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Miami Heat totalNo line posted

Miami Heat averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Toronto Raptors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Toronto Raptors totalNo line posted

Toronto Raptors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Miami Heat; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.</p>

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors : Toronto Raptors Over 104.5 Team Total Points (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Toronto Raptors have a strong recent scoring record, with an average of 112.8 points in the last five games overall and 110.6 points in their last five away games. Their performance significantly surpasses the set betting line of 104.5 points. Their model prediction of 117.01 points also provides a solid buffer against the bet line. Furthermore, the Raptors' last five games resulted in a 3-2 win-loss record overall and 2-3 on the road, underlining their capability to score high in both home and away games. Although the Miami Heat's recent defensive record is noteworthy, the Raptors' scoring statistics suggest they have a strong likelihood of exceeding 104.5 points, as implied by the probability of 84.0%. Therefore, the bet on the Toronto Raptors scoring over 104.5 points is statistically sound.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors : Miami Heat -5.5 (-118)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on 'Miami Heat -5.5' is a promising decision considering their recent performance and scoring ability. The Heat have a strong home record, winning 4 out of their last 5 games, compared to the Raptors who have a weaker away record, winning only 3. The Heat have also been scoring significantly higher, with an average of 123.4 points per game at home over the last 5 games, compared to the Raptors' 110.6 points away. While the Heat's record against the Raptors isn't strong, their current form and home advantage make them likely to cover the spread. Additionally, the Heat's opponents typically score 120 points at home, but the Raptors have only managed an average of 108.6 points in their last 5 away games, suggesting they may struggle to exceed their average.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors : Toronto Raptors win (+185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Toronto Raptors have shown a strong performance against the Miami Heat in recent matchups, with a 3-1 record in the last five games. Even though the Raptors have a somewhat weaker away record (2-3), their specific record against the Heat suggests they have an effective strategy for this opponent. The Miami Heat's recent home record is strong (4-1), but the team does not perform as well against the Raptors, as reflected in their 1-3 record. Further, the Raptors' model prediction to win, coupled with a 10.6% model edge, indicates a higher probability of success. While the Heat has a higher overall team score, the head-to-head statistics favor the Raptors, making them a promising bet for the Moneyline market.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat in the NBA. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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