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Model picks & player props
NBA
Toronto Raptors
VS
Miami Heat

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 4 markets for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat and backs Miami Heat -5.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $185.

4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Miami Heat
to win by 6+ points
Miami Heat -5.5 Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$18.47Best price-118
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win69.0%
The price says54.1%

The model graded 4 markets for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $185 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Miami Heat -5.5 High69% chance -118
Spread Members only High66% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean46% chance Members
Team Total Members only High87% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Miami Heat
-5.5
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami HeatSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto RaptorsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto RaptorsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Raptors

  • Chucky Hepburn GDay-to-day
  • Alijah Martin GDay-to-day
  • Nate Bittle CDay-to-day
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis FDay-to-day
  • Allen Graves FDay-to-day
  • Kawhi Leonard FDay-to-day

Miami Heat

  • Kylor Kelley CDay-to-day
  • Pelle Larsson GDay-to-day
  • Bam Adebayo CDay-to-day
  • Andrew Wiggins FDay-to-day
  • Klay Thompson GDay-to-day
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo FDay-to-day
  • Davion Mitchell GDay-to-day
  • Keshad Johnson FOut
  • Dru Smith GDay-to-day
Availability updated Oct 11, 3:21AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsToronto Raptors @ Miami HeatNo line posted

Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMiami Heat spreadNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) meet Toronto Raptors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMiami Heat to winNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) host or visit Toronto Raptors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Miami Heat totalNo line posted

Miami Heat averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Toronto Raptors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Toronto Raptors totalNo line posted

Toronto Raptors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Miami Heat; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat — recent results

Miami Heat have won 3 of their last 5 games; Toronto Raptors have won 2 of their last 5.

Miami Heat — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L124–125MINHome
W128–118NOHome
W129–105TORAway
L126–127CHAAway
W143–117ATLHome
Toronto Raptors — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W114–106LACHome
L105–129MIAHome
L102–114CLEAway
W112–110CLEHome
L120–125CLEAway

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Miami Heat won 1, Toronto Raptors won 2.

DateMiami HeatToronto RaptorsWinner
Oct 3129105Miami Heat
Apr 9114128Toronto Raptors
Apr 795121Toronto Raptors

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Heat
PlayerStatus
Kylor Kelley CDAY-TO-DAY
Pelle Larsson GDAY-TO-DAY
Bam Adebayo CDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Wiggins FDAY-TO-DAY
Klay Thompson GDAY-TO-DAY
Giannis Antetokounmpo FDAY-TO-DAY
Davion Mitchell GDAY-TO-DAY
Keshad Johnson FOUT
Toronto Raptors
PlayerStatus
Chucky Hepburn GDAY-TO-DAY
Alijah Martin GDAY-TO-DAY
Nate Bittle CDAY-TO-DAY
Trayce Jackson-Davis FDAY-TO-DAY
Allen Graves FDAY-TO-DAY
Kawhi Leonard FDAY-TO-DAY

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat — model preview

Deep dive into Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors : Toronto Raptors Over 104.5 Team Total Points (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Toronto Raptors have a strong recent scoring record, with an average of 112.8 points in the last five games overall and 110.6 points in their last five away games. Their performance significantly surpasses the set betting line of 104.5 points. Their model prediction of 117.01 points also provides a solid buffer against the bet line. Furthermore, the Raptors' last five games resulted in a 3-2 win-loss record overall and 2-3 on the road, underlining their capability to score high in both home and away games. Although the Miami Heat's recent defensive record is noteworthy, the Raptors' scoring statistics suggest they have a strong likelihood of exceeding 104.5 points, as implied by the probability of 84.0%. Therefore, the bet on the Toronto Raptors scoring over 104.5 points is statistically sound.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Raptors vs Heat, or as Heat vs Raptors. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat head-to-head record

Final scores · 3 meetings on record
Toronto Raptors 2–1 across the last 3 meetings

Last meeting: Sat 3 Oct 2026, Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors: the Heat won 129-105.

DateGameScoreWinner
3 Oct 2026Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors105–129Miami Heat
9 Apr 2026Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors128–114Toronto Raptors
7 Apr 2026Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors121–95Toronto Raptors
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