On Friday 25 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Phoenix Mercury +8.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Phoenix Mercury +8.5 on the Line (+110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The odds are offering Phoenix Mercury at +8.5, which looks solid given how they've played lately. They've struggled overall, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, but they're facing the Las Vegas Aces, who have been on fire, winning 7 of their last 10. However, the Aces have a tough schedule, and the Mercury have played well against hard teams before. Our numbers suggest it'll be a close game, with a likely final margin around -4.1. The biggest risk is that the Aces are scoring a lot, so it'll be important for the Mercury to keep up. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 173 Total Points (+110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The Phoenix Mercury are struggling, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, while the Las Vegas Aces are on fire, winning 7 of their last 10 and scoring a lot. However, the Aces have a tough matchup against the Mercury, who have faced some of the hardest teams in the league lately. The total points line is set at 173, but our numbers suggest it might be lower, around 170.5. With both teams playing tight defense, betting on under 173 seems smart, but keep in mind that the Aces can score big, which is a real risk here. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Las Vegas Aces. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.