On Friday 25 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 175.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The Phoenix Mercury are struggling lately, winning just 3 out of their last 10 games. They've faced some tough teams, and their scoring has not been great. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces are on fire, winning 7 of their last 10 and scoring over 90 points a game. Despite this, the Aces might find it hard to keep up the high-scoring pace against the Mercury's defense. With both teams having a tough schedule ahead, I think the total points will stay under 175.5. The numbers suggest a combined score closer to 170.5, which shows a solid chance for this pick. The biggest risk is that the Aces can score in bursts, so it could go higher if they're really on their game. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Phoenix Mercury +10.5 on the Line (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing
Betting on Phoenix Mercury to cover a spread of +10.5 looks appealing. They've had a tough run lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, but they've faced some really strong teams. Las Vegas Aces are on a hot streak, winning 7 of their last 10 and scoring a ton of points. Still, the Mercury's recent schedule has been one of the hardest in the league, which could help them put up a fight. The Aces have a strong record, but the Mercury are at home and have been competitive against top teams. They have a better chance to stay within that spread than what it looks like on paper. The biggest risk here is how well the Aces have been scoring lately, but if the Mercury can keep it close, this bet could pay off. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kahleah Copper Under 3.5 Rebounds (+111)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Kahleah Copper has been a solid player for the Las Vegas Aces, but when it comes to rebounding, she might not have her best game against the Phoenix Mercury. The Aces have been on fire lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games, while the Mercury have struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10. With so much talent on the Aces' roster, Copper might focus more on scoring than grabbing boards. Betting on Copper to get under 3.5 rebounds makes sense because she averages around 1.7 rebounds during the day. Plus, with the Aces scoring a ton, the game could shift more towards fast breaks and shooting rather than crashing the boards. The biggest risk here is how close these teams are in overall talent, which could lead to unexpected performances. It was priced at +111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.10 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jackie Young Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-114)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Jackie Young from the Las Vegas Aces is a strong player right now, helping her team score an impressive 91.2 points per game. She's been scoring well lately, and with the Mercury struggling in their last few games, this could be a good chance for her to knock down some three-pointers. The Aces have also won 7 of their last 10 games, showing they're in great form. The Mercury have faced a tough schedule, which makes it harder for them to defend effectively. With both teams playing at a fast pace, Young can get open looks from beyond the arc. The biggest risk here is that the Aces might not need to rely on three-pointers if they get ahead early. Still, I think Young can hit over 2.5 three-pointers in this matchup. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing
A'ja Wilson has been on fire lately, helping the Las Vegas Aces win 7 of their last 10 games. With the Aces scoring a whopping 91.2 points a game, there's plenty of chances for rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10, and they face one of the toughest schedules in the league. A'ja has a solid shot at grabbing over 9.5 rebounds, but the Mercury's defense can surprise, so that's a key factor to watch. Overall, this looks like a strong pick for A'ja to hit that number. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Las Vegas Aces. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.