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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 27, 5:11AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Seattle Mariners -3 Spread +900

The model graded 70 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,000 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 8:10PM at T-Mobile Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win35.6%
The price says10.0%
Best price+900
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Seattle Mariners -3 Long-shot36% chance +900
Spread Lean43% chance
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Spread Long-shot29% chance
Spread Long-shot32% chance
Spread Long-shot25% chance
Spread Lean47% chance
Spread Lean51% chance
Moneyline High66% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 13 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 90%
Batter - Hits × 8 props Highup to 90%
Batter - Walks × 5 props Highup to 96%
Batter - Runs Scored × 7 props Highup to 95%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 · $100 returned $365

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 933 of 1,879 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $440
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Seattle Mariners
-4.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,133+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Beat the close

Closing-line value · logged
56%

Our picks beat the closing line here

On our logged picks for this event, we beat the market's closing number 56% of the time — average closing-line value +19.3%. Closing-line value is the sharpest public measure of whether a pick had real edge.

Avg CLV +19.3%

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Bryan Woo SP
Availability updated Aug 26, 8:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Brendan Donovan STL Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Victor Mesa Jr. Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Brendan Donovan STL Batter - Singles
Chandler Simpson Batter - Singles
Taylor Walls Batter - Hits

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Tampa Bay Rays L54-1

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Tampa Bay Rays L54-1

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Tampa Bay Rays L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — recent results

Seattle Mariners have won 3 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 3 of their last 5.

Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–1PHIHome
L0–6PHIHome
W9–2PHIHome
L2–19CHCHome
W6–5CHCHome
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–0DETAway
L1–4DETAway
W4–1DETAway
W3–1BALAway
L2–3BALAway

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Seattle Mariners won 1, Tampa Bay Rays won 5.

DateSeattle MarinersTampa Bay RaysWinner
Aug 923Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 914Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 812Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 1282Seattle Mariners
Jul 1116Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 1027Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Brendan Donovan 3BOUT
Colt Emerson SSOUT
Matt Brash RPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Will Wilson 3BOUT
Logan Evans SPOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

Our Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Cole Young Under 1.5 Total Bases (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 5 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 4 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Moneyline Tampa Bay Rays ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Tampa Bay Rays ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -1 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Mariners, or as Mariners vs Rays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Tampa Bay Rays 5–1 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners2–3Tampa Bay Rays
9 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners1–4Tampa Bay Rays
8 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners1–2Tampa Bay Rays
12 Jul 2026Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays2–8Seattle Mariners
11 Jul 2026Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays6–1Tampa Bay Rays
10 Jul 2026Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays7–2Tampa Bay Rays
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