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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 16, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game Picks
7
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Mets -3 (Spread)
For New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 32.6%, fair odds 3.07, book price +336, model edge +9.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 16 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Mets
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Philadelphia Phillies on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Philadelphia Phillies
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Marcus Semien 2BOut
  • Bo Bichette SSDay-to-day
  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Justin Crawford CFDay-to-day
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut
Availability updated Jul 13, 6:34PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Carson Benge Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jared Young Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kyle Schwarber PHI Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LineNew York Mets run line-3 +336+9.6% edge
-0.9proj. margin
L5 RF2.4L5 RA1.6Away L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

New York Mets spread vs Philadelphia Phillies is live with a model 33% read and a +9.6% model edge; proj. margin -0.9.

MoneylineNew York Mets to win+109+4.3% edge
52%model win %
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA1.6Away L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

New York Mets moneyline vs Philadelphia Phillies is live with a model 52% read and a +4.3% model edge; L5 record 2-3.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsUnder 6 +388+2.8% edge
9.5proj. runs
L5 RF3.4L5 RA3.4Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1O/U6-8

Philadelphia Phillies total runs vs New York Mets is live with a model 23% read and a +2.8% model edge; proj. runs 9.5.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
2.5implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA3.4Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 3.4 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 2.4 (2-3); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for New York Mets.

3.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
2.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesNew York Mets
Runs / game3.42.4
Hits / game4.42.8
Home runs / game0.60.0
Walks drawn / game2.61.6
Batter K / game4.22.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.41.6
Pitching K / game5.23.0
Walks allowed / game1.61.2
L5 record3-22-3

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Philadelphia Phillies +2.5 (-333)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Philadelphia Phillies +2 (-286)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+104)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+102)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Philadelphia Phillies +3 (-476)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-213)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 16 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.