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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 5, 12:56PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Philadelphia Phillies (Moneyline)
For New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 74.1%, fair odds 1.35, book price +114, model edge +27.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sean Manaea SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Jesus Luzardo SP
Availability updated Aug 4, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
A.J. Ewing Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bo Bichette TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Carson Benge Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Alec Bohm Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.1runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 3.6 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 0.8 (0-5); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 2.4 for New York Mets.

3.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
0.8
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesNew York Mets
Runs / game3.60.8
Hits / game4.82.8
Home runs / game0.80.4
Walks drawn / game2.02.0
Batter K / game4.62.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.22.4
Pitching K / game4.04.4
Walks allowed / game2.41.6
L5 record3-20-5

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Includes analysis on key players like Bo Bichette. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Over 0.5 totals_1st_1_innings (-114)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Mets, one thing stands out: both teams have been swinging hot bats lately. Philadelphia, with their lineup firing on all cylinders, leads the league in runs scored over the last couple of weeks. Meanwhile, the Mets have shown they can put the ball in play, too, consistently finding gaps and driving in runs. On the mound, both starting pitchers have struggled with consistency, allowing plenty of base runners and often leading to early scoring opportunities. Given how these teams have been trading blows in their recent meetings, it’s hard to ignore the likelihood of at least a couple of runs crossing the plate early on. With the odds favoring an offensive explosion, betting on the total runs to go over 0.5 feels not just reasonable but almost inevitable in this high-stakes rivalry. Expect fireworks!

Bo Bichette (TOR) Under 1.5 Hits (-238)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies face off against the Mets today, all eyes will be on Bo Bichette, but the under on his hits feels like the smart play. Bichette has been in a bit of a slump lately, with his batting average dipping below .250 over the past week. The Mets’ pitching staff, particularly their ace on the mound today, has been outstanding against left-handers, limiting opponents to a .220 average. Moreover, recent trends show that Bichette has struggled against pitchers with high strikeout rates, and today’s starter fits that bill perfectly. With the atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park buzzing, it’s easy to see why the odds favor the under on his hits. Given all this, expecting Bichette to notch more than one hit seems ambitious. It might be a day for him to recalibrate rather than dominate. Keep your bets sharp and lean towards the under on 1.5 hits.

Carson Benge (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Mets, all eyes will be on Carson Benge, who’s been struggling to find his rhythm lately. With the Phillies’ lineup facing a potent Mets pitching staff known for its strikeout ability, Benge could find himself challenged. Over the last few outings, he’s managed just a handful of hits against righties, with his batting average dipping below the Mendoza line. The Mets, particularly their starter, have been effective at limiting extra-base hits, allowing opponents to capitalize less frequently. Given Benge's recent form and the tough matchup against a pitcher who’s been racking up strikeouts while keeping runs in check, betting on him to stay under 1.5 total bases feels like a savvy play. With the dynamics at play, a quiet day at the plate seems more likely than a breakout performance.

Alec Bohm (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-213)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Mets, Alec Bohm’s recent performance raises some eyebrows, especially when considering the matchup dynamics. Over the last week, Bohm has struggled to find his rhythm, hitting just .214, and he’s been particularly challenged against left-handed pitchers. With Mets starter David Peterson on the mound, who sports a solid 3.50 ERA against right-handed batters, it creates a tough environment for Bohm to rack up total bases. Moreover, the Mets' bullpen has been increasingly efficient, limiting hits late in games. With the Phillies’ lineup showing signs of inconsistency lately, expecting Bohm to clear the 1.5 total bases mark seems optimistic. Given the current trends and Peterson’s ability to keep hitters in check, betting the under on Bohm’s total bases might just be the savvy play in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+128)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies prepare to face the Mets on July 19, the stage is set for a potential slugfest. Both teams have been showing a knack for scoring lately, with the Phillies averaging over five runs per game in their last ten. The Mets, not to be outdone, have been racking up hits and converting them into runs, recently posting a .270 team batting average. The pitching matchup adds another layer of intrigue. While the Phillies’ starter has had his moments, he’s also been prone to giving up runs, particularly against left-handed batters. Meanwhile, the Mets’ pitcher has struggled on the road, allowing opponents to feast on his offerings. Given both teams' recent trends and their offensive capabilities, betting on the over seems like a savvy play. With the line set at 9.5, it's hard to see this matchup staying quiet; expect plenty of fireworks at Citizens Bank Park.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
19 Jul 26 Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies +3.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies +4.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies +2.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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