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Model picks & player props
Miami Marlins
VS
New York Mets

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 19, 4:46AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
45
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Miami Marlins -6 (Spread)
The model graded 65 markets for Miami Marlins vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $1,400 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 18.4%, fair odds 5.43, book price +1300, model edge +11.2%. Tip-off Sun 2 Aug 2026, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 754 of 1,520 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 17
Under 5
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $470
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Miami Marlins
-6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Marlins

  • Joe Mack CDay-to-day
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Kyle Stowers 1BOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Cade Gibson SP

New York Mets

  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Aug 18, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Javier Sanoja MIA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Otto Lopez Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Javier Sanoja MIA Batter - Total Bases
Javier Sanoja MIA Batter - Hits
Carson Benge Batter - Hits

+ 45 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Miami Marlins L54-1Free board7-7

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Miami Marlins L54-1

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Miami MarlinsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Miami Marlins L54-1

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 65 betting markets for Miami Marlins at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 45 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
45
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 65 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 64 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–5SDHome
W2–1SDHome
W4–3WSHHome
W5–4WSHHome
W4–1WSHHome
Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6PHIAway
L5–6PHIAway
W7–1CINAway
W8–4CINAway
L0–1CINAway

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 1.4 runs per game (1-4) while Miami Marlins are at 2.8 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Miami Marlins.

1.4
New York Mets runs/G
2.8
Miami Marlins runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsMiami Marlins
Runs / game1.42.8
Hits / game1.84.4
Home runs / game0.20.8
Walks drawn / game1.01.4
Batter K / game5.61.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.81.6
Pitching K / game2.43.8
Walks allowed / game1.01.2
L5 record1-43-2

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: New York Mets won 4, Miami Marlins won 6.

DateNew York MetsMiami MarlinsWinner
Aug 202Miami Marlins
Aug 126Miami Marlins
Jul 3125Miami Marlins
Jul 3042New York Mets
May 31101New York Mets
May 3061New York Mets
May 2997New York Mets
May 2404Miami Marlins
May 2314Miami Marlins
May 2212Miami Marlins

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Joe Mack CDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Kyle Stowers 1BOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets — model preview

Our Miami Marlins at New York Mets prediction for August 2, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 2, 2026 our model has run Miami Marlins at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Carson Benge Under 0.5 Walks (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Moneyline Miami Marlins ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Marlins vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Marlins vs Mets, or as Mets vs Marlins. The most recent game between them was Sunday 2 August 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 45 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 8 meetings
Even at 4–4 across the last 8 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets0–2Miami Marlins
1 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets2–6Miami Marlins
31 Jul 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets2–5Miami Marlins
30 Jul 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
31 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets10–1New York Mets
30 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets6–1New York Mets
29 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets9–7New York Mets
24 May 2026New York Mets @ Miami Marlins4–0Miami Marlins
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