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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 1:43AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Wed 12 Aug 2026, 6:15PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
64.1%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +146

The model graded 20 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $246 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 64.1% across 39 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 12 Aug 2026, 6:15PM at Busch Stadium.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win57.5%
The price says39.4%
Best price+146
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals Lean57% chance +146
Moneyline Lean53% chance
Spread Long-shot27% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
St. Louis Cardinals · $100 returned $246

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
St. Louis Cardinals
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
St. Louis CardinalsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Blaze Jordan 3BOut
  • Andre Pallante SPOut
  • Everson Pereira RFOut
  • Masyn Winn SSOut
  • Hunter Dobbins SPOut
  • Peter Strzelecki RPOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Kyle Leahy SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 2:07AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.8Home L55-0vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.8Home L55-0vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.6runs we expect
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.8Home L55-0vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent results

St. Louis Cardinals have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–1PITHome
W7–5BALHome
L7–8BALHome
L1–13BALHome
L4–6PHIAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome
W12–3STLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 2.0 runs per game (4-1) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 2.8 (3-2); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

2.0
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
2.8
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game2.02.8
Hits / game3.04.4
Home runs / game0.20.4
Walks drawn / game0.41.8
Batter K / game1.02.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.01.4
Pitching K / game1.43.6
Walks allowed / game1.01.2
L5 record4-13-2

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: St. Louis Cardinals won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 4.

DateSt. Louis CardinalsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Aug 2346Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 22312Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 2167Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1271St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 1120St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 1056Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Blaze Jordan 3BOUT
Andre Pallante SPOUT
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Masyn Winn SSOUT
Hunter Dobbins SPOUT
Peter Strzelecki RPOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals prediction for August 13, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 13, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies: St. Louis Cardinals +3.5 (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
39
Total Picks
64.1%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals 2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals +2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✗ MISS
12 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals +3.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals 3.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✗ MISS
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✗ MISS
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 8.5 ✗ MISS
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Cardinals, or as Cardinals vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 12 August 2026 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 64.1% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 14–9 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 8.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies
22 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies12–3Philadelphia Phillies
21 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies7–6Philadelphia Phillies
12 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals7–1St. Louis Cardinals
11 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals2–0St. Louis Cardinals
10 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals5–6Philadelphia Phillies
14 May 2025St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies7–14St. Louis Cardinals
12 May 2025St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies2–3St. Louis Cardinals
13 Apr 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals7–0St. Louis Cardinals
12 Apr 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals1–4Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

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