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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Baltimore Orioles

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 20, 7:35AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Philadelphia Phillies -4 (Spread)
The model graded 24 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $482 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 31.0%, fair odds 3.23, book price +382, model edge +10.2%. Tip-off Sun 2 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Philadelphia Phillies -4 · $100 returned $482

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 834 of 1,649 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 20
Under 5.5
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $378
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Philadelphia Phillies
-8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Aaron Nola SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Zach Eflin SPOut

Probable pitcher

Chris Bassitt SP
Availability updated Aug 19, 10:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trea Turner Batter - Hits
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Total Bases
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Total Bases
Brandon Marsh LAA Batter - Total Bases

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
2.5runs we expect
L5 RF4.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 23 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 5 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–5NYYHome
L1–3NYYHome
L6–7TBAway
W10–2TBAway
W4–3TBAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–1MIAHome
W6–4MIAHome
W6–5MIAHome
W7–5MINAway
W9–1MINAway

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 2.2 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 4.6 (4-1); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 3.8 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Philadelphia Phillies.

2.2
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
4.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game2.24.6
Hits / game2.65.0
Home runs / game0.00.6
Walks drawn / game2.62.6
Batter K / game4.23.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.81.0
Pitching K / game4.43.8
Walks allowed / game3.62.8
L5 record2-34-1

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Baltimore Orioles won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 3.

DateBaltimore OriolesPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Aug 208Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 105Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 3164Baltimore Orioles
Mar 21108Baltimore Orioles
Mar 13811Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Jordan Westburg 3BOUT
Zach Eflin SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles prediction for August 3, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 3, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies: Under 10.5 Total Runs (-104), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
02 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -4 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Baltimore Orioles 1.5 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Baltimore Orioles 2.5 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Baltimore Orioles 3.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 2 August 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 5 meetings
Philadelphia Phillies 3–2 across the last 5 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles0–8Philadelphia Phillies
1 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles0–5Philadelphia Phillies
31 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles6–4Baltimore Orioles
21 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles10–8Baltimore Orioles
13 Mar 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies11–8Philadelphia Phillies
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