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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
New York Mets

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:17PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:40PM
5
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Mets (Moneyline)
The model graded 11 markets for Washington Nationals vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $137 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 91.9%, fair odds 1.09, book price -270, model edge +18.9%. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • James Wood RFOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jacob Young WSN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Juan Soto NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Irvin WSN Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cedric Mullins BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L53-2Free board6-6

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
3.5runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 11 betting markets for Washington Nationals at New York Mets — 5 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 11 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 10 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 4 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–1CINHome
W8–2CINHome
W5–3CINHome
L3–7PHIAway
W10–4PHIAway

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
James Wood RFOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Drew Millas COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for New York Mets playing Washington Nationals. Includes analysis on key players like CJ Abrams. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Washington Nationals stats and odds.

CJ Abrams (WSN) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on CJ Abrams for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Abrams' average stolen base rate over the last five games, both overall and away, is 0.4, which is below the line of 0.5. This shows that he is less likely to steal a base in the upcoming game. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the Mets is 0, indicating that he has struggled to steal bases against this particular team in the past. In addition, his current hit streak, both overall and away, is 0, suggesting a recent dip in form. With no caught stealing (Cs) instances in the last five games, it indicates he has been cautious or unsuccessful in attempts. This data-driven analysis supports the bet on Abrams for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Mets, or as Mets vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Sunday 21 September 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 5 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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