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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
New York Mets

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:09PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:40PM
5
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Mets (Moneyline)
For Washington Nationals vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 91.9%, fair odds 1.09, book price -270, model edge +18.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:40PM at Citi Field.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Trevor Williams SPOut
  • Jake Irvin SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Brad Lord RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 12:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jacob Young WSN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Juan Soto NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Irvin WSN Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cedric Mullins BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.2implied team total
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for New York Mets playing Washington Nationals. Includes analysis on key players like CJ Abrams. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Washington Nationals stats and odds.</p>

CJ Abrams (WSN) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on CJ Abrams for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Abrams' average stolen base rate over the last five games, both overall and away, is 0.4, which is below the line of 0.5. This shows that he is less likely to steal a base in the upcoming game. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the Mets is 0, indicating that he has struggled to steal bases against this particular team in the past. In addition, his current hit streak, both overall and away, is 0, suggesting a recent dip in form. With no caught stealing (Cs) instances in the last five games, it indicates he has been cautious or unsuccessful in attempts. This data-driven analysis supports the bet on Abrams for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 5 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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