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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
New York Mets

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:27PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Washington Nationals Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +138

The model graded 70 markets for Washington Nationals vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $238 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.4%
The price says40.0%
Best price+138
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Washington Nationals Lean43% chance +138
Spread Long-shot21% chance
Moneyline Long-shot38% chance
Spread Long-shot19% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 9 props Highup to 86%
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Walks × 6 props Highup to 96%
Batter - Singles × 6 props Highup to 91%
Batter - RBIs × 6 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Hits × 4 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 85%
Batter - Runs Scored × 5 props Highup to 83%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 75%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Under 6 · $100 returned $371

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Washington Nationals
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Washington NationalsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • James Wood RFOut
  • Cade Cavalli SPDay-to-day
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 7:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jake Irvin WSN Pitcher - Strikeouts
Brad Lord Pitcher - Strikeouts
Bo Bichette TOR Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jared Young Batter - Total Bases
Daylen Lile Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs Washington Nationals L51-4

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs Washington Nationals L51-4

New York Mets spread form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
0.4runs we expect
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs Washington Nationals L51-4

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Washington Nationals at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome
W3–2MILHome
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4MIAHome
W9–2MIAHome
W7–1COLHome
L1–13COLHome
L1–3COLHome

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: New York Mets won 6, Washington Nationals won 4.

DateNew York MetsWashington NationalsWinner
Aug 1643New York Mets
Aug 1554New York Mets
Aug 1441New York Mets
May 2121New York Mets
May 2048Washington Nationals
May 1969Washington Nationals
May 18167New York Mets
Apr 3045Washington Nationals
Apr 29214Washington Nationals
Apr 2880New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
James Wood RFOUT
Cade Cavalli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Connelly Early SPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets — model preview

Our Washington Nationals at New York Mets prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run Washington Nationals at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jacob Young Under 0.5 Walks (-385), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Washington Nationals 2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 11 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Mets, or as Mets vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 72 meetings on record
New York Mets 38–33 across the last 72 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
15 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets5–4New York Mets
14 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets4–1New York Mets
21 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals1–2New York Mets
20 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals8–4Washington Nationals
19 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals9–6Washington Nationals
18 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals7–16New York Mets
30 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets4–5Washington Nationals
29 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets2–14Washington Nationals
28 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets8–0New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 72 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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