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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Miami Marlins

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Sat 17 May 2025, 8:10PM
20
Game Picks
7
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 4.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins (MLB), model win probability 51.9%, fair odds 1.93, book price +175, model edge +15.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 17 May 2025, 8:10PM at loanDepot Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jesse Scholtens RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Steven Wilson RPOut
  • Steven Matz SPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nick Martinez SP

Miami Marlins

  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Otto Lopez SSDay-to-day
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Owen Caissie RFOut
  • John King RPOut
  • Josh Ekness RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 12:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Josh Lowe TBR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taylor Walls TBR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Derek Hill MIA Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
3.7implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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