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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Miami Marlins

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 6:03AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Sat 17 May 2025, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
7
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 4.5 Team Total +190

The model graded 27 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $290 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 17 May 2025, 8:10PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win51.9%
The price says34.5%
Best price+190
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 4.5 Lean52% chance +190
Team Total High79% chance
Team Total Long-shot37% chance
Team Total Long-shot24% chance
Team Total Long-shot14% chance
Team Total Long-shot8% chance
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Highup to 93%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 88%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 7 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,403+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Rasmussen SP

Miami Marlins

  • Xavier Edwards 2BDay-to-day
  • Pete Fairbanks RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 5:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Josh Lowe TBR Batter - Stolen Bases
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Walks
Taylor Walls TBR Batter - Stolen Bases
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Strikeouts
Derek Hill MIA Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 7 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2Free board14-11

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
0.6runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 27 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 20 on the game itself and 7 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
7
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 27 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 26 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2WSHAway
L4–5WSHAway
L2–9WSHAway
W4–0BOSHome
L3–7BOSHome
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4SDHome
W7–6SDHome
W9–4SDHome
W3–0DETAway
L1–4DETAway

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Miami Marlins won 3, Tampa Bay Rays won 3.

DateMiami MarlinsTampa Bay RaysWinner
Jun 741Miami Marlins
Jun 643Miami Marlins
Jun 506Tampa Bay Rays
May 1736Tampa Bay Rays
May 16105Miami Marlins
May 1527Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Pete Fairbanks RPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Rays. The most recent game between them was Saturday 17 May 2025 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 22 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Rays 13–9 across the last 22 meetings · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
7 Jun 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins4–1Miami Marlins
6 Jun 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins4–3Miami Marlins
5 Jun 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins0–6Tampa Bay Rays
17 May 2026Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays6–3Tampa Bay Rays
16 May 2026Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays5–10Miami Marlins
15 May 2026Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays7–2Tampa Bay Rays
8 Jun 2025Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays3–2Tampa Bay Rays
7 Jun 2025Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays10–11Miami Marlins
6 Jun 2025Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays4–3Tampa Bay Rays
18 May 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins5–1Miami Marlins

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 22 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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