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Model picks & player props
Cleveland Guardians
VS
Houston Astros

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:49AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Sat 20 Jun 2026, 12:10AM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9.5 Total Runs +144

The model graded 20 markets for Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $244 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 20 Jun 2026, 12:10AM at Minute Maid Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win54.2%
The price says41.0%
Best price+144
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Lean54% chance +144
Total Runs High63% chance
Total Runs Lean45% chance
Total Runs High71% chance
Team Total High98% chance
Total Runs Long-shot36% chance
Moneyline High64% chance
Spread Long-shot34% chance
Team Total Long-shot19% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 9.5 · $100 returned $244

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
11.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cleveland Guardians

  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut
  • Slade Cecconi SPOut

Probable pitcher

Parker Messick SP

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ethan Pecko SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 7:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2Free board15-12

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2Free board16-13

Houston Astros spread form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Cleveland GuardiansNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
0.9runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros — recent results

Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5 games; Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5.

Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6NYMAway
W3–1NYMAway
W5–1NYYAway
L3–9NYYAway
W9–7NYYAway
Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–8KCHome
L0–3KCHome
W8–6LAAAway
W4–3LAAAway
W4–2LAAAway

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Houston Astros are scoring 3.4 runs per game (3-2) while Cleveland Guardians are at 3.0 (3-2); Houston Astros pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Cleveland Guardians.

3.4
Houston Astros runs/G
3.0
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
Last 5 gamesHouston AstrosCleveland Guardians
Runs / game3.43.0
Hits / game5.84.6
Home runs / game0.81.0
Walks drawn / game1.21.4
Batter K / game1.65.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.22.2
Pitching K / game4.84.8
Walks allowed / game1.62.4
L5 record3-23-2

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Houston Astros won 4, Cleveland Guardians won 2.

DateHouston AstrosCleveland GuardiansWinner
Jun 2121Houston Astros
Jun 2093Houston Astros
Jun 2018Cleveland Guardians
Apr 2220Houston Astros
Apr 2158Cleveland Guardians
Apr 2092Houston Astros

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT
Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT
Slade Cecconi SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Houston Astros playing Cleveland Guardians. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians stats and odds.

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians : Houston Astros Win (-120)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
11
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
20 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -2.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✗ MISS
20 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros +1.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Guardians vs Astros, or as Astros vs Guardians. The most recent game between them was Saturday 20 June 2026 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
Houston Astros 14–9 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 8.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
21 Jun 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros2–1Houston Astros
20 Jun 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros1–8Cleveland Guardians
19 Jun 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros9–3Houston Astros
22 Apr 2026Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians0–2Houston Astros
21 Apr 2026Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians8–5Cleveland Guardians
20 Apr 2026Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians2–9Houston Astros
9 Jul 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros2–4Cleveland Guardians
8 Jul 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros6–10Cleveland Guardians
7 Jul 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros5–7Cleveland Guardians
8 Jun 2025Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians4–2Cleveland Guardians

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

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