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Model picks & player props
Chicago White Sox
VS
Boston Red Sox

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 24, 8:17AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Chicago White Sox Moneyline +451

The model graded 70 markets for Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $551 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 11:10PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win50.5%
The price says18.1%
Best price+451
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Chicago White Sox Lean50% chance +451
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean48% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Spread Long-shot15% chance
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 11 props Highup to 86%
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 74%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 86%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 73%
Batter - Walks × 10 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props Highup to 79%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 6.5 · $100 returned $600

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 902 of 1,825 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 23
Under 5.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $412
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Chicago White Sox
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,809+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago White SoxMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago White Sox

  • Kyle Teel COut
  • Davis Martin SPOut
  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Chris Murphy RPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Probable pitcher

Sean Newcomb SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP
Availability updated Aug 23, 10:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Braden Montgomery Batter - Singles
Ceddanne Rafaela Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Ceddanne Rafaela Batter - Singles
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Total Bases
Connor Wong BOS Batter - Hits

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Chicago White Sox L55-0Free board7-5

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Chicago White Sox L55-0

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White SoxNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.1runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Chicago White Sox L55-0

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 4 of their last 5 games; Chicago White Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4SFHome
W3–2SFHome
W6–4SFHome
L6–7ARIHome
W9–4ARIHome
Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1NYMHome
L5–10NYMHome
W6–4NYMHome
L0–2ATLHome
L3–4CHCAway

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 6, Chicago White Sox won 0.

DateBoston Red SoxChicago White SoxWinner
Aug 61211Boston Red Sox
Aug 540Boston Red Sox
Aug 4142Boston Red Sox
Jul 921Boston Red Sox
Jul 850Boston Red Sox
Jul 781Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

24 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Trevor Story SSOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Kyle Teel COUT
Davis Martin SPOUT
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Chris Murphy RPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Our Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Miguel Vargas (CHW) Under 1.5 Runs Scored (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Chicago White Sox -0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Chicago White Sox +1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Chicago White Sox +2 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Boston Red Sox 6–0 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox12–11Boston Red Sox
5 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox4–0Boston Red Sox
4 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox14–2Boston Red Sox
9 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox1–2Boston Red Sox
8 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox0–5Boston Red Sox
7 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox1–8Boston Red Sox
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