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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 11:38PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 8:15PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings -104

The model graded 70 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $196 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 23 Aug 2026, 8:15PM at Chase Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.8%
The price says47.4%
Best price-104
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Cincinnati Reds Lean48% chance -104
Spread Long-shot4% chance
Spread Long-shot6% chance
Moneyline Lean53% chance
Spread Long-shot5% chance
Spread Long-shot10% chance
Spread Long-shot8% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 90%
Pitcher - Walks × 4 props Highup to 85%
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 79%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Highup to 90%
Batter - Runs Scored × 2 props Highup to 67%
Batter - Hits × 6 props Highup to 73%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Cincinnati Reds · $100 returned $196

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Cincinnati Reds
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Chase Burns SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Ketel Marte 2BOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
Availability updated Aug 30, 11:20PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Mitch Bratt Pitcher - Strikeouts
Rhett Lowder CIN Pitcher - Walks
Michael Soroka WSN Pitcher - Walks
Mitch Bratt Pitcher - Walks
Ryan Waldschmidt Batter - Walks

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.6Home L51-4vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.6Home L51-4vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2Free board11-10

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
2.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.6Home L51-4vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 4 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–6SFAway
W7–1SFAway
L1–6SFAway
W5–4CHCHome
W2–0CHCHome
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–17CHCAway
W10–8CHCAway
L1–3SFAway
W10–9SFAway
L0–5SFAway

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 1.8 runs per game (1-4) while Cincinnati Reds are at 3.4 (2-3); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Cincinnati Reds.

1.8
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
3.4
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksCincinnati Reds
Runs / game1.83.4
Hits / game3.42.8
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game0.81.6
Batter K / game0.83.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.22.2
Pitching K / game2.21.0
Walks allowed / game1.61.8
L5 record1-42-3

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent meetings

These two have met 8 times recently: Arizona Diamondbacks won 5, Cincinnati Reds won 3.

DateArizona DiamondbacksCincinnati RedsWinner
Aug 23511Cincinnati Reds
Aug 2353Arizona Diamondbacks
Aug 2290Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 1453Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 1312Cincinnati Reds
Jun 1252Arizona Diamondbacks
Mar 16116Arizona Diamondbacks
Mar 8413Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Zac Gallen SPOUT
Tommy Troy LFOUT
Michael Soroka SPOUT
Ketel Marte 2BOUT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOUT
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Blake Walston SPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

Our Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction for August 24, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 24, 2026 our model has run Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-435), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Cincinnati Reds ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Sunday 23 August 2026 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 34 meetings on record
Arizona Diamondbacks 17–16 across the last 34 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 10.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks5–11Cincinnati Reds
22 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks9–0Arizona Diamondbacks
21 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks9–0Arizona Diamondbacks
14 Jun 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds3–5Arizona Diamondbacks
13 Jun 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds2–1Cincinnati Reds
12 Jun 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds2–5Arizona Diamondbacks
16 Mar 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks11–6Arizona Diamondbacks
8 Mar 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds13–4Cincinnati Reds
24 Aug 2025Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–6Cincinnati Reds
23 Aug 2025Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks10–1Arizona Diamondbacks

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 34 meetings on file.

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