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MLB

Michael Soroka

CHW

Value call

Michael Soroka has one live pick today: over 4.5 hits allowed that pays $209 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
47 in 100
Predicted
5.3 hits allowed
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 46.7% · before adjusting for past results 51.1% · the book's price implies 47.8% · gap -1.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Sun 27 Sep, 3:10 PM ET
Michael Soroka
over 4.5 hits allowed
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 4.5 +109 (2.09) · $100→$209
Value call
LEANWins about 47 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$20.90 Odds+109
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Soroka is Over 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On Pitcher - Hits Allowed, our numbers say this bet wins about 47 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 47%, the price says 48%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 9:25AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 140 of 242 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed51.1%46.7%47.8%2.17+3.2%

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AI Analysis

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Michael Soroka (CHW) Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+109)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Michael Soroka (CHW) Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+109). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at +109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Earned Runs 1.5 Over -149 ✓ HIT
22 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies Pitcher - Walks 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Strikeouts — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Strikeouts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Michael Soroka (CHW) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Soroka is Over 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres on Sunday 27 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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