On Monday 14 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the under 6.5 goals bet stands out like a beacon in this matchup. Recent form highlights a stark trend; Leeds has been struggling offensively, averaging just 0.8 goals over their last five matches, while their defense has allowed an average of only one goal. Crystal Palace's away performances haven’t been much better, with a dismal scoring average of just one goal and conceding 2.4. Both teams’ xG numbers reveal that neither is creating many clear chances, further suggesting a likely defensive battle. With Leeds securing a solid home record of 3-2-0 in their last five at Elland Road, and Palace's recent away woes, it seems unlikely that this clash will see a flurry of goals. Expect a tightly contested game, making the under a compelling choice.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepare to host Crystal Palace, the current form of both teams paints a compelling picture favoring the visitors. Leeds has struggled recently, averaging just 0.8 goals over their last five matches, with a concerning xG of 0, highlighting their attacking woes. In contrast, Crystal Palace has shown resilience despite a tough stretch, managing 1.4 goals per game and a more robust performance against similar competition. Leeds’ home record features a shaky 2-2-1, while Palace’s away form has been improving, albeit with a 1-1-3 record. With Leeds conceding 2.6 goals per match recently, the defensive frailties make them ripe for exploitation. A handicap of 3.5 feels justified as Palace looks to not just win but potentially dominate in this matchup, taking advantage of a Leeds side that’s failing to find the net. Expect Palace to cover comfortably.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, expectations for a high-scoring affair seem misplaced. Recent form reveals that Leeds has struggled offensively, averaging just 0.8 goals in their last five matches, including a mere 1.6 at home. Their xG stats reflect a lack of creativity, with a worrying average of zero for both goals scored and expected goals. On the flip side, Crystal Palace has fared similarly, averaging only 1 goal away while conceding 2.4. The defensive setups of both teams are more focused on stability than flair, suggesting a battle more likely to end in a stalemate than a shootout. Given that the last five encounters have also leaned towards low-scoring outcomes, betting on the 'Under 5.5' total goals feels like a prudent move in this matchup.
That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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