On Friday 18 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Leeds United welcomes Crystal Palace, expect a tactical showdown rather than a goal-fest. Both teams have struggled to find the back of the net recently, with Leeds averaging just 1.4 goals in their last five games, while Palace has managed the same but conceded an average of 2.6. Leeds' home form is solid defensively, allowing only 0.6 goals per game over their last five at Elland Road. Moreover, both teams’ xG figures reflect a lack of attacking threat—they're simply not creating enough quality chances. Leeds' last home outings have seen them generate a mere 0.8 expected goals, and Palace's away form isn’t much better. With Leeds leaning on their defense and Palace struggling for away goals, betting on under 6.5 total goals feels like a savvy play. This match could very well conclude with a low-scoring affair, as both teams prioritize a strong defensive display.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Leeds United +2.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the dynamics of this match tilt firmly in favor of the home side. Leeds has been formidable at Elland Road, racking up an impressive 2.4 goals per game in their last five home outings while allowing a mere 0.6. In contrast, Palace has struggled on the road, averaging only 1 goal but conceding a staggering 2.4. Recent xG data underscores Leeds’ attacking threat, with a significant average of 13.8 shots per game at home, indicating they’re creating ample chances. Meanwhile, Palace's away form has seen them falter, scoring just once in their last five away matches. Given Leeds' strong home record and Palace's defensive frailties, backing Leeds to cover a 2.5 handicap seems not only reasonable but also a savvy play in this match-up. Expect Leeds to capitalize on their momentum and deliver a resounding performance.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the momentum seems to heavily favor the visitors. Crystal Palace may not have shone brightly on the road lately, but their defensive resilience is noteworthy. They’ve kept matches tight, with an away goal average of just 1 per game over their last five, while Leeds has struggled to capitalize, averaging 2.4 goals at home but conceding 2.4 as well. Leeds’ recent form shows a mixed bag, with a 2-2-1 record that hints at vulnerability. Meanwhile, Palace holds a slight edge in head-to-head matchups with a 2-2-1 record against Leeds. An alternate handicap of 3.5 for Palace seems sensible; they are poised to exploit Leeds’ defensive frailties and maintain their competitive edge. With Leeds conceding an xG average of 2.6, expect Palace to take advantage and potentially cover this line comfortably.
That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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