On Monday 14 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Leeds United host Crystal Palace, expect a tightly contested affair with not many goals. Leeds' recent home form has seen them average just 1.6 goals scored, while conceding a mere 0.4. Their last five home matches indicate a struggle to find the net consistently, with an xG of zero—a stark reminder of their attacking woes. Crystal Palace, too, has been uninspiring on the road, averaging 1 goal scored but allowing 2.4. Their away matches have lacked flair, often leading to matches that fall well below the scoring threshold. Both teams are set up defensively, with Leeds managing to keep their opponents from racking up chances. Given these trends and the implied probability of under 6.5 goals at 96.3%, betting on a low-scoring match seems like the prudent choice here.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, recent form paints a concerning picture for the home side. Despite a decent home record, Leeds has struggled to find the back of the net lately, averaging just 0.8 goals in their last five games, while conceding a worrying 1.0. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, may have been inconsistent, but they’ve shown resilience even in tough matches, with their last five outings yielding a 1.4 goal average. The stats suggest a growing divide, as Palace outmatches Leeds in expected goals when facing similar opponents. With Leeds’ recent home form faltering, and Palace's ability to capitalize on defensive lapses, backing Crystal Palace to cover a 3.5 handicap feels like a smart play—especially when you consider Leeds' struggles to score and their leaky defense against a Palace side that’s eager to seize the moment.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Leeds United +2.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the recent trends make a compelling case for a bet on Leeds at -2.5 on the handicap. Despite a mixed bag at home, Leeds has shown a resilience that’s hard to ignore, averaging 1.6 goals at Elland Road while conceding just 0.4 over their last five home games. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, managing only one win in their last five away fixtures and averaging a disappointing 1 goal per game. With Leeds generating 13.6 shots at home, they’ve been proactive in seeking goals. While their recent xG numbers might not show it, the overall attacking intent and defensive solidity suggest they have the upper hand. Considering Palace’s away woes and lack of scoring punch, Leeds looks poised to dominate this match, making the handicap of -2.5 an intriguing proposition.
That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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