On Sunday 27 September 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, there’s a compelling case for taking Everton with a 0.5 handicap. The Toffees have shown resilience at home, boasting a solid record of 2 wins in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals while conceding just 1.6. Their defense has been particularly sharp lately, allowing only 0.6 expected goals against in their recent fixtures. Chelsea, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, netting just 1.2 goals per away game while conceding 2.4. Their attack has been inconsistent, with a mere 11.4 shots per game away from home. Given Everton's recent form and Chelsea’s vulnerabilities, Everton not only has the home advantage but also the statistical edge, making them a compelling pick to cover the handicap. Expect a tight contest, but Everton’s current momentum could tilt the scales in their favor.

Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the stage is set for a tightly contested match. Recent form reveals that both teams have struggled to find their scoring touch, with Everton averaging just 1.2 goals per game in their last five outings and Chelsea not faring much better at 1.2 away goals. The Toffees' defense has been solid at home, conceding only 0.6 goals per game. With recent head-to-head encounters showing a pattern of draws—Everton has seen three draws in their last five clashes against Chelsea—it’s hard to overlook the potential for another stalemate. The implied probability of a draw at 25.2% offers enticing value, especially given the defensive tactics both teams have employed lately. Expect a tactical battle that could easily end without a winner, making the draw a compelling play.

That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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