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Model picks & player props
Aston Villa
VS
Crystal Palace

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 5, 5:24AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Selhurst Park, London
Outdoor
Wed 7 Jan 2026, 7:30PM
13
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Crystal Palace Draw No Bet +120

The model graded 14 markets for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $220 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 7 Jan 2026, 7:30PM at Selhurst Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win58.7%
The price says45.5%
Best price+120
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Draw No Bet Crystal Palace Lean59% chance +120
Head to Head (3-Way) Long-shot38% chance —
Moneyline Long-shot38% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Lean44% chance —
Moneyline Lean44% chance —
Anytime Goal × 1 prop Leanup to 42% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →
Aston Villa are the model's favourite to beat Crystal Palace, with a 62% chance to win. Kick-off Wed 7 Jan, 7:30PM at Selhurst Park. Best bet: Crystal Palace at +120.
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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 45 of 96 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeSep 4
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Our call on this game: 1 pick on tonight's board · logged before tip-offSee tonight's picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Draw No Bet
Crystal Palace
+120
+ 12 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Crystal PalaceDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Crystal PalaceHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Crystal PalaceMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Aston Villa

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crystal Palace

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jean-Philippe Mateta Crystal Palace Anytime Goal

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineAston Villa @ Crystal PalaceNo line posted
3-2-3past meetings (last 8)
Draw25%Home form9-6-5Away form11-5-4
past meetings, home wins3 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Crystal Palace have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3; the model reads Crystal Palace's win chance at 38% for this fixture. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Both Teams to ScoreAston Villa @ Crystal PalaceNo line posted
67%both teams score %
6 / 8past meetings, both scored
Crystal Pa55%Aston Vill60%
past meetings, both scored6 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 55% of Crystal Palace's and 60% of Aston Villa's recent matches; our model makes both teams scoring 67% here. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Total GoalsAston Villa @ Crystal PalaceNo line posted
6 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.545%Away ov2.565%past meetings avg3.5
past meetings, over 2.56 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals, over 2.5 in 6 of them. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace — what the model found

Our model graded 14 betting markets for Aston Villa at Crystal Palace — 13 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

13
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 14 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 13 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace — model preview

Deep dive into Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa EPL match. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Jean-Philippe Mateta. Check out EPL predictions, EPL game picks, soccer betting preview, Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa stats and odds.

Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+155)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jean-Philippe Mateta's performance data indicates a strong potential for scoring. In his last five overall games, he has averaged 0.8 goals, and at home, he averages 0.6 goals. This shows a consistent scoring ability, irrespective of the match location. Furthermore, his shot averages are also impressive with 2.2 overall and 2 at home, demonstrating a persistent offensive presence. His accuracy is also notable with an average of 1.4 shots on target overall and 1.2 at home. His past performance also supports this bet, with a hit rate of 6/9 overall and 3/4 at home. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his consistent past performance and high averages suggest a high likelihood of him scoring in the upcoming match.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace in the Soccer. You may also see this matchup written as Villa vs Palace, or as Palace vs Villa. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 7 January 2026 at Selhurst Park. The model has generated 13 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 20 meetings on record
Crystal Palace 9–7 across the last 20 meetings · 4 draws · these games average 2.5 goals (meetings on record since 2013)
DateGameScoreWinner
7 Jan 2026Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace0–0Draw
31 Aug 2025Crystal Palace @ Aston Villa0–3Crystal Palace
25 Feb 2025Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace4–1Crystal Palace
23 Nov 2024Crystal Palace @ Aston Villa2–2Draw
19 May 2024Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace5–0Crystal Palace
16 Sep 2023Crystal Palace @ Aston Villa3–1Aston Villa
4 Mar 2023Crystal Palace @ Aston Villa1–0Aston Villa
20 Aug 2022Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace3–1Crystal Palace
15 May 2022Crystal Palace @ Aston Villa1–1Draw
27 Nov 2021Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace1–2Aston Villa

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 20 meetings on file.

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