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MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Miami Marlins
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds and backs Cincinnati Reds hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $208.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Cincinnati Reds
to win
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline
You bet$10 If it wins$20.80Best price+108
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win49.6%
The price says46.3%

The model graded 70 markets for Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $208 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 1:41 PM ET at Great American Ball Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Cincinnati Reds Lean50% chance +108
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean49% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot36% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot32% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean47% chance Members
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 97% Members
Batter - Hits × 7 props Highup to 92% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 91% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Highup to 88% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 95% Members
Batter - Singles × 5 props Highup to 85% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 8 props Highup to 88% Members
Batter - RBIs × 5 props Highup to 91% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026: Miami Marlins won 7-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 75,033+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Marlins

  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Jakob Marsee CFOut

Cincinnati Reds

  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Julian Garcia RPOut
  • Dane Myers CFOut
Availability updated Nov 3, 12:30AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
JJ Bleday Batter - Walks
Michael Toglia Batter - Hits
Elly De La Cruz CIN Batter - Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz CIN Batter - Walks
Otto Lopez MIA Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Miami MarlinsNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
3.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.8L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games; Miami Marlins have won 3 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–5TORAway
W5–1TORAway
L5–6TORAway
W7–6ATLAway
L2–3ATLAway
Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3ATLHome
L3–8ATLHome
W3–0ATLHome
L1–2CHCAway
W3–2CHCAway

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 2.4 runs per game (2-3) while Miami Marlins are at 1.2 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for Miami Marlins.

2.4
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
1.2
Miami Marlins runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsMiami Marlins
Runs / game2.41.2
Hits / game2.43.2
Home runs / game0.60.6
Walks drawn / game1.20.6
Batter K / game1.41.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.42.0
Pitching K / game1.01.4
Walks allowed / game0.81.6
L5 record2-32-3

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 3, Miami Marlins won 4.

DateCincinnati RedsMiami MarlinsWinner
Aug 1617Miami Marlins
Aug 1548Miami Marlins
Aug 1410Cincinnati Reds
Apr 918Miami Marlins
Apr 847Miami Marlins
Apr 763Cincinnati Reds
Apr 620Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Julian Garcia RPOUT
Dane Myers CFOUT
Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Jakob Marsee CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Our Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Esteury Ruiz (MIA) Under 0.5 RBIs (-312), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Marlins vs Reds, or as Reds vs Marlins. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds: game facts

Past meetings and recent results

Where they last met

  • 16 Aug 2026Miami Marlins beat Cincinnati Reds 7-1 on the road
  • 15 Aug 2026Miami Marlins beat Cincinnati Reds 8-4 on the road
  • 14 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds beat Miami Marlins 1-0 at home

Miami Marlins: last 5 results

  1. 27 Sep 2026Wonvs Atlanta Braves 5-3
  2. 26 Sep 2026Lostvs Atlanta Braves 3-8
  3. 25 Sep 2026Wonvs Atlanta Braves 3-0
  4. 24 Sep 2026Lostat Chicago Cubs 1-2
  5. 23 Sep 2026Wonat Chicago Cubs 3-2

Cincinnati Reds: last 5 results

  1. 27 Sep 2026Lostat Toronto Blue Jays 1-5
  2. 26 Sep 2026Wonat Toronto Blue Jays 5-1
  3. 25 Sep 2026Lostat Toronto Blue Jays 5-6
  4. 24 Sep 2026Wonat Atlanta Braves 7-6
  5. 23 Sep 2026Lostat Atlanta Braves 2-3

Quick answers

Who won the last Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins game? Miami Marlins won their last meeting 7-1 on 16 August 2026.

How have Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds done lately? Miami Marlins won 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 results we hold. Cincinnati Reds won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 results we hold.

From the final scores we hold. Newest game first.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds: the season so far

From every final score this season

Miami Marlins are 80-82 this season and Cincinnati Reds are 75-87. Cincinnati Reds are 38-43 at home. Miami Marlins are 33-48 on the road. Cincinnati Reds score 4.1 runs a game and let in 5.1. Miami Marlins score 4.4 and let in 4.4. Cincinnati Reds games have averaged 9.2 runs in total; Miami Marlins games have averaged 8.8.

SeasonMiami MarlinsCincinnati Reds
Won-lost80-8275-87
At home47-3438-43
On the road33-4837-44
Last 105-54-6
Runs scored a game4.44.1
Runs let in a game4.45.1
Runs scored at home4.54.0
Runs scored away4.44.2
Against winning sides33-4736-52
Current runWon 1Lost 1
Biggest win12-0 vs Atlanta Braves15-1 vs Washington Nationals
Heaviest loss13-1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates20-0 at Milwaukee Brewers

Teams they have both played

  • Against Toronto Blue Jays: Cincinnati Reds lost 1-5 on the road; Miami Marlins lost 1-2 on the road.
  • Against Atlanta Braves: Cincinnati Reds won 7-6 on the road; Miami Marlins won 5-3 at home.
  • Against Chicago Cubs: Cincinnati Reds lost 1-9 at home; Miami Marlins lost 1-2 on the road.

Quick answers

How are Cincinnati Reds doing this season? Cincinnati Reds are 75-87 this season: 38-43 at home and 37-44 on the road.

How many runs do Miami Marlins score a game? Miami Marlins score 4.4 runs a game this season and let in 4.4, across 162 games.

Wins and losses come from the final score, overtime included. “Against winning sides” counts games against teams that have won more than half their games this season.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds head-to-head record

Final scores · 27 meetings on record
Cincinnati Reds 14–13 across the last 27 meetings · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 16 Aug 2026, Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds: the Marlins won 7-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds1–7Miami Marlins
15 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds4–8Miami Marlins
14 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds1–0Cincinnati Reds
9 Apr 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins8–1Miami Marlins
8 Apr 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins7–4Miami Marlins
7 Apr 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins3–6Cincinnati Reds
6 Apr 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins0–2Cincinnati Reds
10 Jul 2025Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds6–0Cincinnati Reds
9 Jul 2025Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds7–2Cincinnati Reds
8 Jul 2025Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds2–12Miami Marlins

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 27 meetings on file.

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