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The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Toglia is Over 0.5 on Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs.
On the Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +11.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:16PM UTC
MLB

Michael Toglia

COL

+11.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 0.5 -161 (1.62) · $100→$162
+11.0% Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies
Coors Field, Denver, Colorado · Outdoor
Sun 6 Jul, 7:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
72.7%
Implied Probability
61.7%
Model Edge
+11.0%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs72.7%61.7%1.38+11.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Michael Toglia (COL) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-161)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Michael Toglia for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits Runs Rbis market is a solid choice based on his recent performance statistics. Over the last five games, Toglia has averaged 0.8 hits, 0.4 runs, and 1 RBI overall, and his performance at home has been even stronger with an average of 1 hit per game. His current hit streak, both overall and at home, stands at 2 games, indicating a consistent level of performance. Additionally, against the Chicago White Sox, Toglia's batting averages remain promising with 0.6 hits, 0.2 runs, and 0.4 RBIs. These stats collectively suggest a high probability of Toglia achieving over 0.5 in the Batter Hits Runs Rbis market, making this bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Michael Toglia is averaging 0.8 hits, 0.2 home runs and 1.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.8
Hits
0.2
HR
1.0
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.2
Walks
1.2
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Michael Toglia has gone over 0.5 total bases in 60% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.560%
o1.520%
o3.520%

Home / away and opponent splits

Michael Toglia is averaging 0.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.6 in away games, including his recent form against SDP.

0.8
Hits · Overall
0.6
Hits · Away
0.6
Hits · vs SDP
0.2
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Away
0.2
HR · vs SDP
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Michael Toglia (COL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Toglia is Over 0.5 on Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.0% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies on Sunday 6 July at Coors Field, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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