On Wednesday 30 September 2026, Bournemouth play Sunderland in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Both Teams To Score: No, priced at +120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Both Teams To Score: No (+120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, the stats point towards a low-scoring affair. Both teams have struggled to find the net recently, with Bournemouth averaging just 1.2 goals in their last five matches, while Sunderland has managed a meager 1.2 as well. What's telling is the lack of expected goals (xG) from either side—both teams have recorded an average xG of zero in their last outings. Sunderland has been particularly leaky at the back, conceding 2 goals per game away. However, Bournemouth's home form has been shaky, with their last five matches yielding only a single win and half of their games ending without finding the net. Given these trends, betting on 'No' for both teams to score seems a prudent choice, as neither side shows the necessary firepower to break through.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Bournemouth +0 Goal Handicap (-227)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, it’s crucial to note the Cherries’ recent home performances, where they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored per match and conceded just 1. This solid home defense could be the key against a Sunderland side that hasn’t been prolific on the road, managing only 1.8 goals per game while allowing 2. While both teams exhibit a lack of consistent xG, Bournemouth's strong showing at home, coupled with Sunderland's struggles, suggests a turning point for the Cherries. In their last five encounters, Bournemouth has been underwhelming, but they’ve had a recent uptick in shots and overall attacking intent, averaging 14.4 shots at home. With Sunderland's away record faltering, a bet on Bournemouth to cover the handicap makes sense. Expect them to capitalize on their home advantage and finally secure a much-needed victory.

That is how our model reads Bournemouth v Sunderland. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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