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Soccer

Adam Smith

AFC Bournemouth

Value call

Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) has one live pick today: over 0.5 shots that pays $340 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
40 in 100
Predicted
0.4 shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 39.9% · before adjusting for past results 44.9% · the book's price implies 29.4% · gap +10.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Bournemouth @ Manchester United
Old Trafford, Manchester, Greater Manchester · Outdoor
Sun 25 Oct, 2:00 PM UK time
Adam Smith
over 0.5 shots
Shots Over 0.5 +240 (3.40) · $100→$340
Value call
LEANWins about 40 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$34.00 Odds+240
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Adam Smith is Over 0.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 40 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 40%, the price says 29%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 5:20PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls soccer total goals overs: +$2,522 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots44.9%39.9%29.4%2.50+15.5%

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AI Analysis

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Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots (+240)

Odds correct at time of publishing

As Bournemouth heads to Old Trafford, Adam Smith presents an intriguing opportunity in the Player Total Shots market. While his recent averages show just 0.4 shots per game overall, and only 0.2 away, there’s an edge here that can't be ignored. Facing a Manchester United side that often puts pressure on opponents, Smith could find himself in positions to unleash a shot or two. With a predicted hit rate of 15.5% over the line of 0.5, it’s clear there's potential for value. Given that Smith had a hit in 2 of his last 5 games, and with United likely pushing for goals, the away side will need to counterattack effectively. This could open up space for Smith, making the Over 0.5 shots a compelling bet. Sometimes, the best opportunities come from unexpected players, and this could be one of those moments.

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Pick History & Track Record

Adam Smith — 2023 season

Adam Smith scored 0 goals with 1 assist in 37 Premier League appearances for Bournemouth in the 2023 season, from 5 shots (1 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.5.

0
Goals
1
Assists
0.5
xG
5
Shots
1
On target
16
Key passes
37
Apps
2943
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adam Smith is Over 0.5 on Shots. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.5% on this pick. Their next game is Bournemouth vs Manchester United on Sunday 25 October at Old Trafford, Manchester. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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