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The latest Bet Better model pick for Adam Smith is Over 0.5 on Shots on Target.
On Shots on Target, our numbers say this bet wins about 20 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 20%, implied 11%, edge +12.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:55AM UTC
Soccer

Adam Smith

AFC Bournemouth

+12.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots on Target Over 0.5 +850 (9.50) · $100→$950
+12.6% Edge
Bournemouth @ Newcastle United
St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, Tyne and Wear · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 11:30AM
The recordWhen our formula calls soccer draw no bet calls: 57 of 117 right
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
23 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Shots on Target
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 23.2% · the book's price implies 10.5% · gap +12.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Target23.2%19.8%10.5%5.04+12.6%

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AI Analysis

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Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+850)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When you think of Bournemouth's Adam Smith, scoring isn't necessarily the first thing that comes to mind. Yet, in this Premier League clash against Newcastle, there’s an intriguing angle worth exploring. While his recent stats show no shots on target, it’s essential to consider the dynamics of this matchup. Newcastle is known for their high-pressing style, which can force defenders like Smith into more aggressive positions. If Bournemouth is pinned back, he might find opportunities to unleash a shot as they look to counterattack. The current odds imply a modest chance of him hitting the target, but the reality is that Smith’s defensive role can shift; he may surprise us with an opportunistic strike. With the right game script unfolding, the potential for him to notch at least one shot on target is far more favorable than the numbers suggest.

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Pick History & Track Record

Adam Smith — 2023 season

Adam Smith scored 0 goals with 1 assist in 37 Premier League appearances for Bournemouth in the 2023 season, from 5 shots (1 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.5.

0
Goals
1
Assists
0.5
xG
5
Shots
1
On target
16
Key passes
37
Apps
2943
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adam Smith is Over 0.5 on Shots on Target. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.6% on this pick. Their next game is Bournemouth vs Newcastle United on Saturday 5 September at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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