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The latest Bet Better model pick for Adam Smith is Over 0.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 41 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 41%, implied 26%, edge +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Aug 21, 2:44AM UTC
Soccer

Adam Smith

AFC Bournemouth

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots Over 0.5 +280 (3.80) · $100→$380
+19.6% Edge
Bournemouth @ Manchester City
Etihad Stadium, Manchester, Greater Manchester · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 1:00PM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
46 in 100
Predicted
0.4 Shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 45.9% · the book's price implies 26.3% · gap +19.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots45.9%40.7%26.3%2.46+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots (+280)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When Bournemouth travels to face a dominant Manchester City side, you might not expect Adam Smith to shine in a high-pressure environment. However, his recent form tells a different story. Smith has turned up the heat with two consecutive games filled with attacking intent, and while his shot averages might not scream “goal-scoring threat,” his ability to find opportunities cannot be overlooked. With City likely controlling possession, Smith will find himself in positions to push forward, especially on the break. Given that the Citizens’ aggressive style can leave gaps, he might just seize the moment. The odds suggest there’s a solid chance of him registering at least one shot, and with a 19.6% model edge, it's a worthwhile gamble. Plus, with Bournemouth needing to be adventurous to compete, Smith could easily capitalize on any counter-attacking chances. Expect him to thrive as he looks to extend that hit streak!

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Pick History & Track Record

Adam Smith — 2023 season

Adam Smith scored 0 goals with 1 assist in 37 Premier League appearances for Bournemouth in the 2023 season, from 5 shots (1 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.5.

0
Goals
1
Assists
0.5
xG
5
Shots
1
On target
16
Key passes
37
Apps
2943
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adam Smith is Over 0.5 on Shots. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Bournemouth vs Manchester City on Sunday 23 August at Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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