On Monday 28 September 2026, Bournemouth play Sunderland in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Both Teams To Score: No, priced at +120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Both Teams To Score: No (+120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Bournemouth host Sunderland, the data paints a compelling picture for a bet on "No" for both teams to score. Bournemouth's recent form is shaky, with just two goals in their last five outings and an uninspiring xG of zero in that span. They’ve averaged a mere 1.2 goals per match and often struggle to convert their attempts, with the home crowd witnessing only 1.4 goals on average from them lately. On the other side, Sunderland has also struggled offensively, scoring just 1.2 goals in their recent away fixtures. Their xG numbers echo this lack of potency. With both teams lacking firepower and solid defensive records—Bournemouth conceding an average of 1.6 goals while Sunderland has let in 2—this clash may lead to a low-scoring affair. Expect a tense battle with fewer than two goals, making "No" for both teams to score a savvy wager.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-769)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, the trends suggest a low-scoring affair is on the horizon. Both teams have struggled to find the net lately, with Bournemouth averaging just 1.2 goals in their last five matches and Sunderland not faring much better at 1.2 goals. Their recent performances paint a clear picture; Bournemouth has managed only 1.4 goals at home, while Sunderland's away form has seen them concede an average of 2 goals. Digging deeper into expected goals (xG), both sides have been underwhelming, averaging close to zero in xG, which indicates a scarcity of quality chances. With Bournemouth’s defensive frailties and Sunderland’s inability to capitalize on opportunities, the stage seems set for a match that could very well go under 4.5 goals. With a combined average of just over 1.5 goals per game in their last five, this bet feels like a savvy move.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Bournemouth +0 Goal Handicap (-233)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Bournemouth prepares to take on Sunderland, the odds favor the home side, and for good reason. Despite a rocky recent patch, they've shown flashes of quality at the Vitality Stadium, averaging 1.4 goals at home while limiting opponents to just 1 goal per game. Sunderland, however, has struggled on the road, conceding an average of 2 goals away from home. Add to that their disappointing form, with only one win in their last five outings, and it’s clear they’re not firing on all cylinders. Bournemouth’s xG data suggests they’re creating opportunities but haven’t quite converted them lately. Still, the underlying stats point to a team capable of bouncing back. With Sunderland's defensive frailties and Bournemouth’s need for a vital win, backing Bournemouth to cover the zero handicap seems not just smart, but a necessary play in this encounter.

That is how our model reads Bournemouth v Sunderland. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article