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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 6, 4:28AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
8
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Boston Red Sox 2.5 Spread -313

The model graded 28 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $132 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:35PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win90.5%
The price says75.8%
Best price-313
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Boston Red Sox 2.5 High90% chance -313
Spread Long-shot32% chance
Spread Long-shot27% chance
Spread Long-shot38% chance
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Lean59% chance
Spread Lean44% chance
Spread Long-shot21% chance
Spread Long-shot17% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 74%
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 83%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 87%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox last met on Sun 19 Jul 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Boston Red Sox 2.5 · $100 returned $132

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 74 of 108 right (mlb batter hits overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 5
Brady House Over 0.5
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $172
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Boston Red Sox
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 8 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,565+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Garrett Cleavinger RPOut
  • Bryan Baker RPDay-to-day
  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Rasmussen SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sonny Gray SP
Availability updated Sep 5, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Sonny Gray CIN Pitcher - Strikeouts
Chandler Simpson TBR Batter - Total Bases
Anthony Seigler Batter - Total Bases
Willson Contreras STL Batter - Total Bases
Junior Caminero Batter - Hits

+ 8 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L54-1Free board10-8

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 28 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 8 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
8
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 28 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 27 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–8SEAHome
L1–16NYYAway
L2–9NYYAway
W6–0NYYAway
L0–1NYYAway
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3NYMHome
W5–4SDHome
W7–6SDHome
W9–4SDHome
W3–0DETAway

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 5, Tampa Bay Rays won 5.

DateBoston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysWinner
Jul 1961Boston Red Sox
Jul 1876Boston Red Sox
Jul 1753Boston Red Sox
Jul 17100Boston Red Sox
Jun 1057Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 934Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 813Tampa Bay Rays
May 1014Tampa Bay Rays
May 820Boston Red Sox
May 748Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Ceddanne Rafaela CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Tyron Guerrero RPOUT
Eduardo Rivera SPOUT
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Garrett Cleavinger RPOUT
Bryan Baker RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Boston Red Sox playing Tampa Bay Rays. Includes analysis on key players like Caleb Durbin. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays stats and odds.

Caleb Durbin (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox prepare to face off against the Rays, all eyes will be on Caleb Durbin, who’s been a mixed bag lately at the plate. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent performance against left-handed pitching has been less than stellar, hitting just .220 over the last month. The Rays’ ace on the mound, a crafty lefty, excels at neutralizing left-handed batters, further complicating Durbin’s chances. Moreover, the Red Sox lineup has struggled to find consistent rhythm against quality pitching, leading to sporadic offensive output. With Boston's recent record against lefties not in their favor—averaging only a handful of runs—you can see why going under 1.5 total bases for Durbin makes sense. Combine his struggles with the tough matchup, and it’s tough to envision him clearing that mark today. Expect a quiet afternoon for Durbin at the plate.

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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
19 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -2.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox +2.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox +1.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Moneyline Boston Red Sox ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Sox, or as Sox vs Rays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 19 July 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 64 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 33–31 across the last 64 meetings · these games average 8.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
18 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox7–6Boston Red Sox
17 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox5–3Boston Red Sox
10 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays7–5Tampa Bay Rays
9 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays4–3Tampa Bay Rays
8 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays3–1Tampa Bay Rays
10 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox1–4Tampa Bay Rays
8 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox2–0Boston Red Sox
7 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox4–8Tampa Bay Rays
20 Mar 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays2–0Tampa Bay Rays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 64 meetings on file.

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