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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Collingwood Magpies

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Fri 30 May 2025, 9:40AM
11
Game Picks
12
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Collingwood Magpies -8.5 (Spread)
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL), model win probability 68.4%, fair odds 1.46, book price -111, model edge +15.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 30 May 2025, 9:40AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Collingwood Magpies
-7.5
+ 10 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ned Long Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jamie Elliott Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brody Mihocek Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Hawthorn Hawks @ Collingwood Magpies — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Jamie Elliott. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks stats and odds.</p>

Jamie Elliott (Collingwood) Over 1.5 Goals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jamie Elliott has been in top form at home, averaging 2 goals per game in his last five matches. With a strong goal accuracy of 58.3% and an average of 4 shots at goal in home games, Elliott is poised to exceed the 1.5 goal line. His recent performance against Hawthorn, averaging 0.5 goals in their matchups, suggests he can capitalize on this game. Additionally, his current hit streak of 3 in home games and 1 overall, along with a 67.6% implied probability, indicate a high likelihood of him continuing his scoring trend. Betting on Jamie Elliott to score over 1.5 goals seems a solid choice given his impressive statistics and recent form.

Nick Watson (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nick Watson's recent performances show a strong trend of scoring, averaging 1.8 goals in his last 5 games with a solid goal accuracy of 48.3%. Facing Collingwood, against whom he has averaged 3 goals in the last 5 matchups, Watson is poised for scoring opportunities. His consistent involvement in creating scoring chances, with 5 score involvements per game, and his ability to take shots at goal (3.4 per game) enhance his goal-scoring potential. The model predicting him to score at least 1 goal aligns with his recent form and historical success against Collingwood, making the bet on Nick Watson to score anytime a sensible choice for this matchup.

Bobby Hill (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bobby Hill is a strong bet to score anytime in the Collingwood vs. Hawthorn matchup. With an impressive L5 average of 1.2 goals per game at home and a goal accuracy of 36.7%, he consistently contributes to his team's scoreboard. Additionally, his average of 3 shots at goal and 5 score involvements per game demonstrate his active role in attacking plays. Against Hawthorn, Hill maintains a solid L5 average of 1 goal per game, showcasing his ability to perform against this opponent. Considering his recent form and the model's prediction of 1.4 goals with a 2.2% edge, Bobby Hill is a reliable choice to score in this game.

Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) Over 19.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Scott Pendlebury is a reliable performer, averaging 26.8 disposals in his last five home games. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he averages 18.8 disposals, Pendlebury's model-projected 23.1 disposals suggest he will surpass the 19.5 line. With strong recent form, including an impressive 74.9% disposal efficiency and a current hit streak of 7, Pendlebury is likely to capitalize on his consistent contested possessions (8.6) and uncontested possessions (18.4). Additionally, his average of 316.8 meters gained and 2.6 intercepts per game enhance his potential to meet or exceed the disposal line. Based on his recent performances, Pendlebury presents a solid opportunity to bet on him achieving over 19.5 disposals in this upcoming home game.

Tim Membrey (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-526)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tim Membrey is a strong bet to score anytime against Hawthorn based on his recent performance trends. With an average of 1.2 goals in his last 5 home games and facing Hawthorn, against whom he averages 1.5 goals at home, Membrey's consistency is notable. His 46.7% goal accuracy and involvement in 4.8 scores per game further support his scoring potential. The model's prediction of 1.3 goals with a 1.4% edge indicates a favorable opportunity for Membrey to continue his scoring form. Considering his steady performance and the matchup, the Over on Membrey to score anytime is a logical choice for this AFL game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 30 May 2025 at MCG. The model has generated 11 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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