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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Collingwood Magpies

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 2:36PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Fri 30 May 2025, 9:40AM
11
Game markets graded
12
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Collingwood Magpies -8.5 (Spread)
The model graded 23 markets for Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 68.4%, fair odds 1.46, book price -111, model edge +15.7%. Tip-off Fri 30 May 2025, 9:40AM at MCG.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Collingwood Magpies
-7.5
+ 10 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ned Long Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jamie Elliott Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brody Mihocek Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Hawthorn Hawks @ Collingwood Magpies — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Hawthorn Hawks at Collingwood Magpies — 11 on the game itself and 12 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

11
Game markets graded
12
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Hawthorn Hawks @ Collingwood Magpies — model preview

Winning bets for Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Jamie Elliott. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks stats and odds.

Jamie Elliott (Collingwood) Over 1.5 Goals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jamie Elliott has been in top form at home, averaging 2 goals per game in his last five matches. With a strong goal accuracy of 58.3% and an average of 4 shots at goal in home games, Elliott is poised to exceed the 1.5 goal line. His recent performance against Hawthorn, averaging 0.5 goals in their matchups, suggests he can capitalize on this game. Additionally, his current hit streak of 3 in home games and 1 overall, along with a 67.6% implied probability, indicate a high likelihood of him continuing his scoring trend. Betting on Jamie Elliott to score over 1.5 goals seems a solid choice given his impressive statistics and recent form.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Hawks vs Magpies, or as Magpies vs Hawks. The most recent game between them was Friday 30 May 2025 at MCG. The model has generated 11 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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