On Friday 9 October 2026, New York Liberty play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Atlanta Dream +3.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Atlanta Dream +3.5 on the Line (-110)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The Atlanta Dream are on fire, winning 9 out of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive average of nearly 95 points in their recent outings. They've also won their last 6 games straight, so they're riding a wave of confidence. In contrast, while the New York Liberty have had some solid wins, they've faced tougher teams recently and their last few games haven't been as strong. Given how well the Dream are playing, taking them with a 3.5-point cushion seems like a safe bet. The teams are pretty evenly matched based on recent form, and the Liberty's tougher opponents might make it a close game. The biggest risk here is that New York has home-court advantage, which can be significant in basketball. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Atlanta Dream to Win (+135)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Atlanta Dream are on fire, having won 9 of their last 10 games and are riding a six-game winning streak. They've been scoring a crazy 94.6 points on average in their last 20 games, showing they can really put up numbers. The New York Liberty have had a solid season too, winning 6 of their last 10, but they've faced the third toughest schedule in the league, which might have worn them down a bit. This matchup is tough, but Atlanta Dream has the momentum and scoring power on their side. The Liberty have been good at home, but with Atlanta's hot streak, they could struggle to keep up. The biggest risk is how close their win rates are, so it could go either way. Still, with the odds at +129, it's worth taking a chance on Atlanta Dream to win. It was priced at +135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 179.5 Total Points (-278)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The New York Liberty face off against the Atlanta Dream at Barclays Center. The Dream have been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games and scoring a lot, but the Liberty have had a tougher schedule lately, which might slow things down. With both teams' recent scoring trends, our numbers suggest this game will stay under 179.5 points. The Liberty have won just 6 of their last 10, which shows they might struggle against the Dream's momentum. The biggest risk here is that the Dream could overpower the Liberty's defense. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
DeWanna Bonner Under 1.5 Assists (+110)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The New York Liberty are facing a tough challenge against the Atlanta Dream, who have been on a hot streak, winning six games in a row and scoring an impressive average of nearly 95 points per game in their last 20 outings. The Liberty have had a solid season too, winning six of their last ten matches, but they've faced some strong teams along the way. This matchup feels really close, and both teams can put up points. For DeWanna Bonner, I like the bet for under 1.5 assists. With the way Atlanta is playing, they might keep the ball out of her hands more than usual, especially since the Dream have been effective at stealing the ball. There's a real chance she might not get those assists today, given the pressure she'll face. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Naz Hillmon Under 13.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+110)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Naz Hillmon has been playing well, but the New York Liberty are known for their tough defense. They have faced some strong teams recently, making it hard for any player to rack up big numbers. With the Liberty holding a solid record against tough opponents, it's likely they'll keep Hillmon's points, rebounds, and assists lower than usual. On the other hand, Atlanta Dream is on a hot streak, winning nine of their last ten games, but they tend to share the ball a lot. Hillmon could struggle to hit the over here, especially given that she might not get as many chances as she usually would. The biggest risk is that Hillmon could surprise us, but the numbers suggest it's a good shot to take the under on 13.5. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jonquel Jones Under 9.5 Rebounds (-109)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The Atlanta Dream have been on fire, winning six games in a row and scoring nearly 95 points each game. Meanwhile, New York Liberty have had a tough time with their schedule, facing some strong teams recently. Jonquel Jones has been a solid player, but with the Dream's strong rebounding numbers, it could be tricky for her to grab a lot of boards in this matchup. Our numbers give a good chance for Jonquel Jones to end up with fewer than 10 rebounds. The Dream are known for their strong defense and rebounding, which makes it tough for even the best players to shine. The biggest risk here is that Jones could have a standout game and surprise everyone, but the way the Dream are playing, this bet looks promising. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.