On Friday 7 August 2026, Brisbane Lions play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals, priced at -159 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Cam Mackenzie stands out like a beacon in the night sky. Mackenzie, the dynamic midfielder for the Hawthorn Hawks, has been on an absolute tear lately. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 21.8 disposals per game. That's not all – his recent form screams consistency, with an impressive disposal efficiency of 71.2% and an average of 10.4 handballs and 11.4 kicks per game. Facing off against the Brisbane Lions, Mackenzie's recent history against them also supports our case. With his current hot streak of 4 games hitting the mark and a solid hit rate of 7 out of the last 8 away games, the stage is set for Mackenzie to shine once more and easily surpass the 19.5 disposal line. It's a bet that looks as safe as houses.
Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cam Mackenzie has been a midfield maestro for the Hawthorn Hawks, and the numbers back it up. In his last five away games, Mackenzie has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 21.8 disposals per game. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his Metres Gained average of 315.2. Facing the Brisbane Lions, who he's averaged 11 disposals against in his last five games, Mackenzie is poised to exploit their matchups. With a current hit streak of 4 and a strong overall hit rate, including hitting his disposal line in 7 out of his last 8 away games, it's clear that Mackenzie is in form and ready to dominate the Gabba. Betting on him to go Over 18.5 disposals is a solid play with a high probability of success.
Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 20.5 Disposals (-222)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to finding value in the disposals market, Karl Amon stands out like a shining star under the Gabba lights. In his last five away games, Amon has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 23.8 disposals. Facing off against the Brisbane Lions, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 25 disposals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for Amon to feast on the pill once again. With a solid contested possession average of 4.2 and an impressive disposal efficiency of 79.4%, Amon's ability to find space, penetrate defenses, and link up play makes him a prime candidate to surpass the 20.5 disposals line. Backing Amon to eclipse this mark is not just a punt; it's a calculated move based on his recent form and historical performance against the Lions.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Under 22.5 team_totals_q1 (-123)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's break down why the Under 22.5 for the Hawthorn Hawks in the Team Totals Q1 market is looking mighty appealing in their clash against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba.
Recent form paints a clear picture. The Hawks have been struggling to convert opportunities into early points on the road, averaging 16 target goals in their last five away games. Facing a Lions side that tightens up defensively at home, conceding an average of just 82.8 points in their last five at the Gabba, the Hawks may find it challenging to break through early.
With the Lions' solid defensive record and the Hawks' recent struggles in the opening quarter, the Under 22.5 bet on Hawthorn's Q1 total seems like a smart play to snag a win on this one.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Brisbane Lions Win (-128)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Brisbane Lions are roaring with confidence as they prepare to clash with the Hawthorn Hawks at the Gabba. In their last five home games, the Lions have been a force to be reckoned with, averaging a margin of 26.2 points and scoring an impressive 109 points per game. Their midfield dominance is evident, with an average of 42.8 total clearances and 129.4 contested possessions. On the defensive end, they've been solid, conceding just 82.8 points on average. In contrast, the Hawks have struggled on the road, allowing an average of 72.4 points and only managing 35.4 total clearances. With the Lions' strong home form and the Hawks' away woes, backing the Brisbane Lions to snag a win in the Match Winner market looks like a savvy play.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Under 47.5 team_totals_h1 (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why the smart money is on the Under 47.5 for the Brisbane Lions in their clash against the Hawthorn Hawks at the Gabba. The Lions have been a force at home, averaging 61.8 Inside50s and 35 Shotsatgoal per game in their last five home fixtures. However, despite their attacking prowess, they've only managed an average of 16.2 Target Goals in these games.
On the flip side, the Hawks have been stingy on defense, conceding just 72.4 points per game in their last five away matches and a mere 65.2 points overall. With the Lions facing a disciplined Hawks defense and potentially struggling to convert their Inside50s into goals, the Under looks like a safe bet here. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair at the Gabba.
That is how our model reads Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.