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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Brisbane Lions

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Gabba, Brisbane
Outdoor
Sun 24 Aug 2025, 9:20AM
1
Game Picks
10
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Brisbane Lions (Head to Head)
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions (AFL), model win probability 66.4%, fair odds 1.51, book price -161, model edge +4.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 24 Aug 2025, 9:20AM at Gabba.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions
Player props & full board
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Brisbane LionsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
James Sicily Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Zac Bailey Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Calsher Dear Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Callum Ah Chee. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks stats and odds.</p>

Callum Ah Chee (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Callum Ah Chee is poised to snag a goal in the Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks matchup based on his recent form and matchup history. With an average of 0.6 goals in his last 5 home games and an average of 1.3 goals against Hawthorn, Ah Chee has shown consistent scoring potential. His involvement in scoring plays, demonstrated by an average of 5.6 score involvements at home, and his ability to create opportunities with 3.2 inside 50s per game make him a strong candidate to hit the scoreboard. Considering the model's prediction of 1.2 goals, Ah Chee's improved goal accuracy at home (36.7%) further supports the likelihood of him splitting the middle at least once in this game.

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Logan Morris is a solid choice to go over 1.5 goals in the upcoming Brisbane vs. Hawthorn game at the Gabba. His recent form, averaging 2.4 goals over the last five home games, coupled with a 60.9% goal accuracy, indicates his scoring prowess. With 3.8 marks inside 50 and 6 score involvements on average, Morris is consistently involved in setting up scoring opportunities. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he has averaged 2 goals in the last five matchups, Morris's current hit streak and overall goal-scoring form make him a promising bet to continue his scoring streak.

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks : Brisbane Lions Win (-161)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The bet on Brisbane Lions to win against Hawthorn Hawks is supported by their strong recent form. In their last five home games, the Lions have averaged 94.6 points scored and have a solid average margin of 8. They excel in clearances (36), contested possessions (126.2), and inside 50s (60.2) per game. Additionally, their ability to create turnovers (59.4) and intercepts (64.6) provides a sturdy defense. On the other hand, Hawthorn struggles away, with an average margin of -7.2 and conceding 81.2 points. Their lower averages in contested possessions (134.2) and inside 50s (49) could be exploited by the Lions' strong midfield and attacking prowess, making Brisbane Lions a strong bet for the win.

Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cam Rayner is a strong bet to score anytime in the upcoming Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks game due to his recent form and matchup history. With a solid average of 1.6 goals over his last five games and a 1.2 goal average against Hawthorn, Rayner's goal-scoring ability is consistent. Additionally, his high score involvements (5.8) and shots at goal (3.8) indicate he is actively involved in attacking plays, increasing his chances of snagging a goal. Playing at home further boosts his scoring potential. Considering his recent performance and the favorable statistics against Hawthorn, Rayner is well-positioned to surpass the 0.5 goal line set by the bookmaker.

Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cam Rayner is poised to shine at home against Hawthorn, with a model-predicted 17.6 disposals, indicating an Edge of 1.8%. His recent form shows an average of 17.2 disposals in his last five home games, surpassing the 14.5 line comfortably. Rayner's increasing contested possessions (6 avg), effective disposals (65.7% eff), and solid kicks (9.8 avg) suggest he can control the game. With a strong historical hit rate (3/4) at home and an overall hit rate of 8/10, Rayner's consistency favors him to exceed 14.5 disposals. The data supports a solid bet on Rayner to go Over in the Disposals market.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025 at Gabba. The model has generated 1 game pick and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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