Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ned Long is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +9.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Ned Long

Collingwood

+9.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -169 (1.59)
+9.1% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Fri 10 Apr, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.0%
Implied Probability
62.9%
Model Edge
+9.1%
Predicted Value
17.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.0%—62.9%1.39+9.1%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Ned Long (Collingwood) Over 14.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

As we gear up for the clash between the Collingwood Magpies and Fremantle Dockers at the Adelaide Oval, all eyes are on Ned Long to deliver a standout performance on home turf. Long has been a consistent force in recent games, averaging 13.2 disposals in his last five home games, with a solid disposal efficiency of 55.4%. His ability to cover the ground is evident, averaging 154.2 meters gained per game. When facing off against Fremantle, Long has elevated his game, averaging 19 disposals in their last five encounters. With a model prediction of 17.4 disposals and a 9.1% edge in his favor, the Over 14.5 disposals market for Ned Long seems like a smart bet. Riding a current hit streak and with a 62.9% implied probability, Long is primed to shine and surpass the line.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
8.3avg disposals recent
Season best13
Disposals last 10avg 8.3 · hi 13 · lo 3
931299887135

Ned Long has a disposals high of 13 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.2avg goals recent
Season best1
Goals last 10avg 0.2 · hi 1 · lo 0
0000001010

Ned Long has a goals high of 1 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 14.5 Over -169 ✗ MISS
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 13.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Ned Long (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ned Long is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.1% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Collingwood Magpies on Friday 10 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks