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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ned Long is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:22PM UTC
AFL

Ned Long

Collingwood

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+3.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+3.9%
Predicted Value
16.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.8%—69.9%1.35+3.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Ned Long (Collingwood) Over 13.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Ned Long, the midfield maestro for Collingwood, is poised to make waves at Adelaide Oval. Over his last five away clashes, he's been a disposal magnet, averaging a hefty 17.2 possessions per game. What's more, against the Adelaide Crows specifically, Long's figures soar to an impressive 22.5 disposals on average. His recent form is equally impressive, boasting a solid 16.8 disposals on average across all games. With his current hot streak and a penchant for outperforming against the Crows, Long is primed to eclipse the 13.5 disposal line. Bet on Long to dominate the turf and snag plenty of possessions in this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.2avg disposals L5
Away15.4vs West Coast Eagles15.5Season best13
O 13.550%
O 14.550%
O 15.540%
O 16.530%
O 17.520%
O 18.510%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)avg 8.3 · hi 13 · lo 3
931299887135

Ned Long has gone over 15.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15.2 disposals, best 13).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.6avg goals L5
Away0.4vs West Coast Eagles0Season best1
O 0.530%
O 1.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.2 · hi 1 · lo 0
0000001010

Ned Long has gone over 0.5 goals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Ned Long (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ned Long is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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