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AFL

Ned Long

Collingwood

+2.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -588 (1.17)
+2.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Fri 10 Apr, 9:40AM
Model Probability
88.1%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+2.7%
Predicted Value
17.4 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Ned Long (Collingwood) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Ned Long, the Magpies' midfield maestro, is primed to dominate in disposals against the Dockers on their home turf. Over his last five home games, Long has been a magnet for the footy, averaging a solid 13.2 disposals. With a recent streak of form that saw him surpass the 11.5 line comfortably in all home games, Long's ability to find space and drive the ball forward is undeniable. Against Fremantle, he's even more prolific, boasting an average of 19 disposals over his last five encounters. Long's precision with the ball, coupled with his knack for intercepts and contested possessions, sets him up for a standout performance. With an implied probability of 85.5% to hit the over, backing Ned Long to exceed 11.5 disposals is a smart bet for footy fans seeking a reliable playmaker to deliver on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (8 picks) 75.0% (6/8)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 13.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
14 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
27 Jul 25 Collingwood Magpies @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ned Long (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 8 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 75.0% (6/8). The latest model pick for Ned Long is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Collingwood Magpies on Friday 10 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.