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AFL

Ned Long

Collingwood

Value call

Ned Long (Collingwood) has one live pick today: over 1.5 marks that pays $134 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
65 in 100
Predicted
2.9 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 64.8% · before adjusting for past results 77.2% · the book's price implies 74.6% · gap -9.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 7:40 PM AEST
Ned Long
over 1.5 marks
Marks Over 1.5 -294 (1.34) · $100→$134
Value call
HIGHWins about 65 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.40 Odds-294
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ned Long is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 65%, the price says 75%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 24, 3:11PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks77.2%64.8%74.6%1.54+2.6%

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AI Analysis

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Ned Long (Collingwood) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy punters, let's talk about Ned Long from the Collingwood Magpies and why he's a prime target for the 'Marks Over' prop bet against the Western Bulldogs at the MCG. In his last 5 away games, Ned has been averaging 2 marks, showing a consistent ability to impact the game aerially. When facing the Bulldogs on the road, he's even better, averaging 2.5 marks. With a solid history of 4 marks per game against this opponent, Ned seems to thrive in this matchup. Overall, he's been snagging 1.4 marks per game recently, indicating he's in good form to go above the set line of 1.5. Ned Long's prowess in the air, especially against the Bulldogs, makes him a strong bet to haul in those crucial grabs. So, back Ned Long to soar over 1.5 marks and watch him dominate the skies in Melbourne.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ned Long averaged 8.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

8.4
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.4
Marks
5.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Ned Long recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Brisbane Lions5014
9 Aug 24Sydney Swans13116
3 Aug 24Carlton7015
28 Jul 24Richmond81310
20 Jul 24Hawthorn8015
12 Jul 24Geelong Cats9025
5 Jul 24Essendon9012
20 Aug 23Melbourne12021
22 Jul 23Richmond3002
23 Apr 23Adelaide Crows9017
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks — — — Pending
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ned Long (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ned Long is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.6% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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