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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ned Long is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 64%, implied 75%, edge +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 3:11AM UTC
AFL

Ned Long

Collingwood

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+1.7% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
2.9 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.9% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +1.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks76.9%64.5%75.2%1.55+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies: Ned Long Over 1.5 Marks (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The MCG will be buzzing as the Western Bulldogs take on Collingwood. Ned Long has been a bit quiet lately, but our numbers suggest he could step up today. He's shown flashes in the past, with a couple of games hitting decent marks. With both teams fairly close in contested possessions, it might open up opportunities for him to get more involved. Collingwood tends to let more scoring chances slip through, and that could mean more chances for Long to rack up marks. However, he hasn't been consistent, and there's a real chance he could struggle to hit that target. Still, the overall matchup looks promising for him to grab those marks.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Season averages (2024)

Ned Long averaged 8.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

8.4
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.4
Marks
5.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Ned Long recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Brisbane Lions5014
9 Aug 24Sydney Swans13116
3 Aug 24Carlton7015
28 Jul 24Richmond81310
20 Jul 24Hawthorn8015
12 Jul 24Geelong Cats9025
5 Jul 24Essendon9012
20 Aug 23Melbourne12021
22 Jul 23Richmond3002
23 Apr 23Adelaide Crows9017
Quick answers:How many disposals does Ned Long average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 1.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Ned Long (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ned Long is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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