On Tuesday 22 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Dallas Wings in the WNBA. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 172.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 172.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
For this game, we're looking at the total points to stay under 172.5. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games and often losing by about 5 points. They also give up a lot of three-point attempts, which could mean lower scoring if Dallas can't find their rhythm from beyond the arc.
The Dallas Wings have been better, winning 5 of their last 10 and scoring 89 points a game this season. However, with both teams having some ups and downs, it's possible the scoring could fall short tonight. The combined scoring from our numbers suggests it'll be closer to 167 points, so betting under seems like a solid choice. Just keep in mind that both teams are pretty close in performance, which could lead to a surprising game. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Phoenix Mercury +6 on the Line (-105)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games and losing by an average of nearly 5 points. However, they're facing the Dallas Wings, who are doing well with 5 wins in their last 10 and scoring a solid 89 points a game. With the Mercury getting 6 points, it seems like a decent chance for them to keep it close, especially since Dallas can let opponents score from long range. The risk is that the Wings have a strong recent record, making this matchup pretty tight. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.