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Model picks & player props
Dallas Wings
VS
Phoenix Mercury

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 21, 12:37AM UTC

Our model graded 20 markets for Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury and backs Under 173.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $187.

WNBA
PHX Arena, Phoenix
Indoor
Tue 22 Sep 2026, 2:00AM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 173.5 Alt Total Points -115

The model graded 20 markets for Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury (WNBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $187 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 22 Sep 2026, 2:00AM at PHX Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win62.0%
The price says50.1%
Best price-115
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alt Total Points Under 173.5 High62% chance -115
Alt Total Points Members only Lean59% chance Members
Total Points Members only High60% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean58% chance Members
Alt Spread Members only High61% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Predicted score: Phoenix Mercury 81.7 – Dallas Wings 85.7. Kick-off Tue 22 Sep, 2:00AM at PHX Arena. Best bet: Under 173.5 at -115.
How they've been scoring this season
Dallas WingsPhoenix Mercury
Won-lost25-1614-27
Points scored per game88.784.0
Points allowed per game84.687.9
On the road / at home9-10 away6-14 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWWWLLWWL
Their games average 172.6 total points this season.
From the 41 Dallas Wings and 41 Phoenix Mercury games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 22 bookmakers compared
Winner
Dallas Wings1.46-217Ladbrokes
Mercury3.23+223Kalshi
Total points
Over171.51.88-114Sportsbet
Under171.51.95-105FanDuel

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury odds by bookmaker

22 books · best price in green
BookDallas Wings winMercury winMercury +6.5Over 171.5Under 171.5
Bally Bet1.42-2382.90+1901.88-1141.88-1141.93-108
BetMGM1.45-2222.80+180
betPARX1.42-2382.90+1901.88-1141.88-1141.93-108
BetRivers1.42-2382.88+1881.87-1151.88-1141.92-109
DraftKings1.44-2272.85+185
Fanatics1.43-2332.90+1901.87-115
FanDuel1.43-2332.86+1861.87-1151.87-1151.95-105
Fliff1.37-2703.00+2001.83-120
Hard Rock Bet1.42-2382.85+1851.87-1151.95-105
ReBet1.41-2442.79+179
Sportsbet1.41-2442.85+1851.86-1161.88-1141.92-109
TABtouch1.42-2382.88+1881.85-1181.85-1181.89-112
Unibet1.42-2382.90+1901.88-1141.88-1141.93-108
William Hill1.43-2332.93+1931.87-115

Since the market opened: Mercury to win opened 2.91, best now 3.28; the over 171.5 opened 1.87, best now 1.88 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best WNBA market — 1,999 of 2,686 right (wnba totals unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 20
Under 172.5
Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $245
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Total Points
Under
182
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix MercurySpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix MercuryAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix MercuryAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix MercuryAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix MercuryAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Phoenix Mercury on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Phoenix Mercury
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Phoenix Mercury
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Dallas Wings

  • Alanna Smith FOut
  • Azzi Fudd GOut
  • Costanza Verona GOut

Phoenix Mercury

  • Kahleah Copper GOut
  • Kelsey Plum GOut
  • Jovana Nogic GOut
Availability updated Sep 19, 4:04PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 21 Sep

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction & Picks: Analytics Breakdown

On Tuesday 22 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Dallas Wings in the WNBA. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 172.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 172.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

For this game, we're looking at the total points to stay under 172.5. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games and often losing by about 5 points. They also give up a lot of three-point attempts, which could mean lower scoring if Dallas can't find their rhythm from beyond the arc. The Dallas Wings have been better, winning 5 of their last 10 and scoring 89 points a game this season. However, with both teams having some ups and downs, it's possible the scoring could fall short tonight. The combined scoring from our numbers suggests it'll be closer to 167 points, so betting under seems like a solid choice. Just keep in mind that both teams are pretty close in performance, which could lead to a surprising game. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Phoenix Mercury +6 on the Line (-105)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games and losing by an average of nearly 5 points. However, they're facing the Dallas Wings, who are doing well with 5 wins in their last 10 and scoring a solid 89 points a game. With the Mercury getting 6 points, it seems like a decent chance for them to keep it close, especially since Dallas can let opponents score from long range. The risk is that the Wings have a strong recent record, making this matchup pretty tight. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury — recent results

Phoenix Mercury have won 2 of their last 5 games; Dallas Wings have won 5 of their last 5.

Phoenix Mercury — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L82–87DALAway
W94–91PORAway
W101–69TORHome
L73–80WSHHome
L84–94WSHHome
Dallas Wings — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W87–82PHXHome
W97–77LAHome
W97–71CONHome
W96–78PORHome
W92–70SEAHome

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Phoenix Mercury won 0, Dallas Wings won 2.

DatePhoenix MercuryDallas WingsWinner
Sep 198287Dallas Wings
Jun 127085Dallas Wings

Who’s out or in doubt

6 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Phoenix Mercury
PlayerStatus
Kahleah Copper GOUT
Kelsey Plum GOUT
Jovana Nogic GOUT
Dallas Wings
PlayerStatus
Alanna Smith FOUT
Azzi Fudd GOUT
Costanza Verona GOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury — where the money went

Since betting opened on Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury, the market has moved away from Phoenix Mercury across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Phoenix Mercury▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Dallas Wings -6.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Phoenix Mercury 6.5▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Dallas Wings▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury — model preview

Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings, 22 September 2026. Top of the list: Under 172.5 Total Points. Our model likes 2 bets in this game.

On Tuesday 22 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Dallas Wings in the WNBA. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 172.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 172.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

For this game, we're looking at the total points to stay under 172.5. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games and often losing by about 5 points. They also give up a lot of three-point attempts, which could mean lower scoring if Dallas can't find their rhythm from beyond the arc. The Dallas Wings have been better, winning 5 of their last 10 and scoring 89 points a game this season. However, with both teams having some ups and downs, it's possible the scoring could fall short tonight. The combined scoring from our numbers suggests it'll be closer to 167 points, so betting under seems like a solid choice. Just keep in mind that both teams are pretty close in performance, which could lead to a surprising game. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. You may also see this matchup written as Wings vs Mercury, or as Mercury vs Wings. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 22 September 2026 at PHX Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your WNBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Dallas Wings 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Sep 2026Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings87–82Dallas Wings
12 Jun 2026Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings85–70Dallas Wings
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