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Model picks & player props
Burnley
VS
Aston Villa

Burnley vs Aston Villa Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:43AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Villa Park, Birmingham
Outdoor
Sun 5 Oct 2025, 1:00PM
3
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Aston Villa Head to Head (3-Way) -175

The model graded 3 markets for Burnley vs Aston Villa (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $157 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 5 Oct 2025, 1:00PM at Villa Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win79.5%
The price says63.7%
Best price-175
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Head to Head (3-Way) Aston Villa High79% chance -175
Moneyline High79% chance —
Draw No Bet High89% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →

Burnley and Aston Villa last met on Sun 5 Oct 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every Soccer game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Aston Villa · $100 returned $157

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 57 of 117 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeSep 7
Cagliari
Lecce @ Cagliari
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $162
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Head to Head (3-Way)
Aston Villa
-175
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Aston VillaHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Burnley

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Aston Villa

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Burnley vs Aston Villa: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
4-3-1past meetings (last 8)
Home form11-5-4Away form2-7-11
past meetings, home wins4 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 1. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Draw No BetBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
89%Aston Villa win %
4-3-1past meetings (last 8)
Home GF/g1.6Away GF/g1.2

Aston Villa to win with the stake returned on a draw; the model prices this at 89%. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Both Teams to ScoreBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
53%both teams score %
7 / 8past meetings, both scored
Aston Vill60%Burnley75%
past meetings, both scored7 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 60% of Aston Villa's and 75% of Burnley's recent matches; our model makes both teams scoring 53% here. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Total GoalsBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
6 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.565%Away ov2.565%past meetings avg3.4
past meetings, over 2.56 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 3.4 goals, over 2.5 in 6 of them. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Burnley @ Aston Villa — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Burnley at Aston Villa — 3 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
05 Oct 25 Head to Head (3-Way) Aston Villa ✓ HIT
05 Oct 25 Draw No Bet Aston Villa ✓ HIT
05 Oct 25 Moneyline Aston Villa ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Burnley vs Aston Villa in the Soccer. The most recent game between them was Sunday 5 October 2025 at Villa Park. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 14 meetings on record
Aston Villa 6–2 across the last 14 meetings · 6 draws · these games average 3.3 goals (meetings on record since 2009)
DateGameScoreWinner
10 May 2026Aston Villa @ Burnley2–2Draw
5 Oct 2025Burnley @ Aston Villa2–1Aston Villa
30 Dec 2023Burnley @ Aston Villa3–2Aston Villa
27 Aug 2023Aston Villa @ Burnley1–3Aston Villa
19 May 2022Burnley @ Aston Villa1–1Draw
7 May 2022Aston Villa @ Burnley1–3Aston Villa
27 Jan 2021Aston Villa @ Burnley3–2Burnley
17 Dec 2020Burnley @ Aston Villa0–0Draw
1 Jan 2020Aston Villa @ Burnley1–2Aston Villa
28 Sep 2019Burnley @ Aston Villa2–2Draw

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 14 meetings on file.

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