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Model picks & player props
Soccer
Villa Park, Birmingham
Outdoor
Sun 5 Oct 2025, 2:00 PM UK time
Burnley
VS
Aston Villa

Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 3 markets for Burnley vs Aston Villa and backs Aston Villa hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $157.

3
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Aston Villa
Aston Villa Head to Head (3-Way)
You bet$10 If it wins$15.71Best price-175
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win79.5%
The price says63.7%

The model graded 3 markets for Burnley vs Aston Villa (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $157 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 5 Oct 2025, 2:00 PM UK time at Villa Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Head to Head (3-Way) Aston Villa High79% chance -175
Moneyline Members only High79% chance Members
Draw No Bet Members only High89% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Burnley and Aston Villa last met on Sun 5 Oct 2025. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every Soccer game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Head to Head (3-Way)
Aston Villa
-175
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Aston VillaHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Burnley

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Aston Villa

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Burnley vs Aston Villa: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
4-3-1past meetings (last 8)
Home form11-5-4Away form2-7-11
past meetings, home wins4 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 1. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Draw No BetBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
89%Aston Villa win %
4-3-1past meetings (last 8)
Home GF/g1.6Away GF/g1.2

Aston Villa to win with the stake returned on a draw; the model prices this at 89%. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Both Teams to ScoreBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
53%both teams score %
7 / 8past meetings, both scored
Aston Vill60%Burnley75%
past meetings, both scored7 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 60% of Aston Villa's and 75% of Burnley's recent matches; our model makes both teams scoring 53% here. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Total GoalsBurnley @ Aston VillaNo line posted
6 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.565%Away ov2.565%past meetings avg3.4
past meetings, over 2.56 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 3.4 goals, over 2.5 in 6 of them. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Burnley @ Aston Villa — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Burnley at Aston Villa — 3 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Burnley vs Aston Villa in the Soccer. The most recent game between them was Sunday 5 October 2025 at Villa Park. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Burnley vs Aston Villa head-to-head record

Final scores · 14 meetings on record
Aston Villa 6–2 across the last 14 meetings · 6 draws · these games average 3.3 goals (meetings on record since 2009)

Last meeting: Sun 10 May 2026, Aston Villa at Burnley: the game ended level at 2-2.

DateGameScoreWinner
10 May 2026Aston Villa @ Burnley2–2Draw
5 Oct 2025Burnley @ Aston Villa2–1Aston Villa
30 Dec 2023Burnley @ Aston Villa3–2Aston Villa
27 Aug 2023Aston Villa @ Burnley1–3Aston Villa
19 May 2022Burnley @ Aston Villa1–1Draw
7 May 2022Aston Villa @ Burnley1–3Aston Villa
27 Jan 2021Aston Villa @ Burnley3–2Burnley
17 Dec 2020Burnley @ Aston Villa0–0Draw
1 Jan 2020Aston Villa @ Burnley1–2Aston Villa
28 Sep 2019Burnley @ Aston Villa2–2Draw

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 14 meetings on file.

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