Theo Johnson (NYG) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Theo Johnson to score anytime against the Dallas Cowboys presents a challenging prospect given his recent performance metrics. Over his last 5 games, Johnson has not found the end zone, recording an overall hit rate of 0/5. His statistics against the Cowboys are particularly concerning, as he has yet to score in 3 attempts, both overall and at home. Despite these trends, the model edge of 0.167 suggests there may be potential for a rebound. The Giants’ offensive strategy could shift, creating opportunities for Johnson, especially if the Cowboys’ defense is preoccupied with other key playmakers. Additionally, his home hit rate of 1/5 slightly indicates some potential for improved performance in familiar surroundings. In summary, while the historical data largely supports a lack of confidence in Johnson scoring, the model edge invites consideration for a contrarian bet, anticipating a breakout in a crucial division matchup.

Cam Skattebo (NYG) Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Cam Skattebo to go Over 49.5 rushing yards is compelling based on recent performance and statistical trends. In his last five games, Skattebo has averaged 10.4 rushing yards per game at home, achieving 3/3 hits in that span. His overall hit rate over the last five games stands at 80% (4/5), showcasing reliable performance. Although he has yet to hit this mark against the Cowboys in previous matchups (0/1), the model edge of 0.118 suggests value in this line. The Giants' offensive scheme has been increasingly favorable for Skattebo as evidenced by his home performance streak of 3 games, indicating a strong likelihood of exceeding 49.5 rushing yards. Furthermore, the Cowboys have shown vulnerabilities against the run, which could enhance Skattebo's opportunities. Overall, the combination of his recent home success and positive statistical edge supports this bet.

Jaxson Dart (NYG) Over 149.5 Player pass yds alternate (-769)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jaxson Dart to exceed 149.5 passing yards against the Dallas Cowboys offers a strong statistical edge. Dart has demonstrated consistency with an overall hit rate of 60% in the last 20 games (9/14), and a notable 80% at home in his last five games (4/5). His recent performance shows he is in form, hitting the mark in two of his last three games and maintaining a current hit streak. Against the Cowboys, Dart has recorded a 50% hit rate in their last two matchups, with a perfect 100% hit rate at home in those encounters (1/1). The model edge of 0.091 suggests that the line is favorable for Dart, especially considering the Cowboys' defense can yield passing yards. Overall, Dart's combination of recent form and favorable matchup statistics strongly supports the bet on the Over for his passing yards.

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