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NFL

Theo Johnson

NYG

Value call

Theo Johnson has one live pick today: over 24.5 receiving yards that pays $439 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
29 in 100
Predicted
26.3 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 29.1% · before adjusting for past results 41.6% · the book's price implies 22.8% · gap +6.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
New York · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Theo Johnson
over 24.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 24.5 +339 (4.39) · $100→$439
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 29 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$43.90 Odds+339
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Theo Johnson is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 29 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 29%, the price says 23%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 1, 4:09AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLE
questionable
updated Oct 27, 1:11PM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)41.6%29.1%22.8%4.39+18.9%

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AI Analysis

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Theo Johnson (NYG) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (+339)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Giants play New Orleans Saints in the NFL on Sunday 18 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Theo Johnson (NYG) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at +339 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $43.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD27 lines trackedNo line posted
27%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked27

Theo Johnson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 27 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 27%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards67 lines trackedNo line posted
19.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over45%tips tracked67

Theo Johnson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 67 times, typically around a 19.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions18 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–3.5model over83%tips tracked18

Theo Johnson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 18 times, typically around a 0.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Theo Johnson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Receiving Yards 8.5 Over -108 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Receiving Yards (Alt) 8.5 Over -108 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Receiving Yards (Alt) 4.5 Over -189 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Theo Johnson (NYG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Theo Johnson is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.9% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants on Sunday 18 October at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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