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The latest Bet Better model pick for Theo Johnson is Under 18.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 65%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +12.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NFL

Theo Johnson

NYG

+12.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 18.5 -114 (1.88)
+12.3% Edge
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
New York · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
65.5%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+12.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards65.5%—53.2%1.53+12.3%

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AI Analysis

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Theo Johnson (NYG) Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data suggests that betting on Theo Johnson to finish under 18.5 reception yards in the New York Giants vs Los Angeles Chargers game is a smart move. Johnson’s recent performance supports this with his overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games being 0/3, 0/5, and 0/10 respectively. His hit rate at home is also very low, with 0/3 in the last 3 home games, 1/5 in the last 5, and 2/6 in the last 10. The current hit streaks for both overall and home games are at zero. Additionally, the model edge of 0.122988701101327 indicates a statistical advantage. All these stats signal that Johnson is not expected to surpass 18.5 receiving yards, making the 'Under' bet a statistically sound decision.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
18.5typical line · receiving yds
line range18.5–20.5tips tracked4

Theo Johnson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 18.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Theo Johnson (NYG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Theo Johnson is Under 18.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.3% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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