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Model picks & player props
Boston Celtics
VS
Denver Nuggets

Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
4
Game Picks
10
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Boston Celtics 2.5 (Point Spread)
For Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets (NBA), model win probability 73.3%, fair odds 1.36, book price -115, model edge +19.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Point Spread
Boston Celtics
2.5
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Boston CelticsPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston CelticsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Celtics

  • Chris Cenac Jr. FDay-to-day
  • Dillon Mitchell FDay-to-day
  • Hugo Gonzalez GDay-to-day
  • Jayson Tatum FDay-to-day

Denver Nuggets

  • KJ Simpson GDay-to-day
  • Trevon Brazile FDay-to-day
  • Bryce Hopkins FDay-to-day
  • Peyton Watson GDay-to-day
  • Aaron Gordon FDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 10:43PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jamal Murray Denver Nuggets Assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Julian Strawther Denver Nuggets 3-Pointers 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Julian Strawther Denver Nuggets Points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets Steals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Christian Braun Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsBoston Celtics @ Denver NuggetsNo line posted

Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadDenver Nuggets spreadNo line posted

Denver Nuggets (season record) meet Boston Celtics; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineDenver Nuggets to winNo line posted

Denver Nuggets (season record) host or visit Boston Celtics; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Denver Nuggets totalNo line posted

Denver Nuggets averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Boston Celtics; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Boston Celtics totalNo line posted

Boston Celtics averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Denver Nuggets; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Nikola Jokic. Explore NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics stats and odds.</p>

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Over 1.5 Steals (+185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Folks, keep your eyes on Denver's own Nikola Jokic as the Nuggets go head-to-head with the Boston Celtics tonight. The 'Joker' has been on a defensive tear lately, averaging 2 steals per game overall in his last five outings, and an even more impressive 2.4 steals when playing in front of the home crowd. This man has mastered the art of anticipation and has been deftly reading his opponents' plays, translating into successful steal attempts. Notably, he's hit this target in 4 of his last 5 games – that's an 80% success rate! And when facing the Celtics at home? He's averaged 1.5 steals. Given the data and Jokic's recent form, there's a compelling case to wager on him surpassing 1.5 steals in this showdown. So, take a chance on the Joker - let's see him outwit the Celtics tonight.

Christian Braun (Denver Nuggets) Over 1.5 Assists (-179)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When the Denver Nuggets square off against the Boston Celtics, there's more than just a victory at stake - there's also a tantalizing player prop bet shimmering on the horizon. One name to watch: Christian Braun. Back on home turf, Braun's assist numbers have a habit of jumping off the stat sheet. Over the last five home games, he's averaged three assists, handily outpacing our target of 1.5. His overall average sits comfortably at 2.8, a testament to his court vision and playmaking ability. While his stats against the Celtics may not be as robust, it's worth noting his consistent overall hit rate, with him crossing the line in each of his last four games and a solid 17 out of the last 20 at home. So, if you're looking for a smart bet, Christian Braun for over 1.5 assists is a play you can bank on.

Sam Hauser (Boston Celtics) Under 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Alright, basketball fans, let's talk Sam Hauser. Now, Hauser's been delivering some decent numbers recently, especially on the road. That said, his performance in Denver is what we're focusing on today. When playing away against the Nuggets, Hauser's combined average for points and rebounds is a mere 7.4. Even when you factor in his overall away average of 7.8, it's still well below the 10.5 line DraftKings has him at. Sure, consistency's been Hauser's friend, hitting his stride in the last three overall and four away games. But let's not forget we're talking about a guy whose last five outings saw him put up an average of 5.6 points and scrape up 1.4 rebounds. As confident as Hauser's recent form might make you, the numbers paint a clear picture: expect him to duck under that 10.5 mark tonight.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets in the NBA. The model has generated 4 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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