On Sunday 20 September 2026, Parma play Genoa in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 5.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Parma vs Genoa: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Parma hosts Genoa, it’s hard to envision a goal-fest given both teams’ recent form. Parma has been struggling, averaging just 0.6 goals over their last five matches, while their opponents have fared even worse, netting a mere 0.4 goals. The defensive setups have been solid, too, with both sides conceding around 1.2 to 1.8 goals per game. Statistically, neither team has registered any expected goals (xG) in their last outings, hinting at a severe lack of offensive creativity. With Parma’s home matches averaging just a single goal and Genoa's dismal away record, the under 5.5 total goals feels like a wise wager. Considering that both teams have drawn a blank in the xG department, it’s reasonable to predict a low-scoring affair in this Serie A clash.
Parma vs Genoa: Parma +2.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing When Parma hosts Genoa on Sunday, recent trends paint a compelling picture for a Parma victory, especially given their home advantage. Despite a shaky overall record, they’ve shown resilience at home, managing a 2-1-2 record in their last five fixtures. Parma's attacking stats indicate they’re taking the initiative, averaging over 12 shots per game at home, even if they’ve struggled to convert those chances into goals lately. On the flip side, Genoa is in dire form, failing to secure a win in their last five matches, including a dismal away record that sees them averaging just 0.4 goals scored. With Parma boasting a slight edge in xG and a more dynamic offense, backing them to cover a 2.5 goal handicap seems wise. Given the contrasting momentum and home-field advantage, it’s hard to see Parma not taking this one decisively.
Parma vs Genoa: Over 4.5 Total Corners (-2000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Parma prepares to host Genoa, the corner count could very well see a surge. Both sides have struggled offensively lately, with Parma averaging just 0.6 goals in their last five matches and Genoa not faring much better at 0.4. However, those lackluster attacks often lead to a greater emphasis on creating chances from the flanks, resulting in corners. Parma averages nearly 12.4 shots at home, while Genoa’s away matches have seen them attempt around 9 shots. Given the defensive frailties both teams have exhibited—conceding corners while scrambling to defend set plays—it's reasonable to anticipate that the corners will pile up. With the implied probability suggesting a strong likelihood of hitting the over, this match is primed for an abundance of corner kicks, making the 'Over 4.5' bet an appealing choice.
That is how our model reads Parma v Genoa. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.