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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 12, 1:40AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar 2026, 5:15PM
13
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Mets -2.5 (Spread)
The model graded 15 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $440 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 35.3%, fair odds 2.83, book price +340, model edge +12.6%. Tip-off Thu 26 Mar 2026, 5:15PM at Citi Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Mets
-1.5
+ 12 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Probable pitcher

Paul Skenes SP

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nolan McLean SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Joey Bart Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Marcus Semien TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2Free board6-6

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
3.7runs we expect
L5 RF5.2L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 15 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets — 13 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

13
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 15 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–5ATLAway
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 3.2 runs per game (2-3) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 3.6 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.2
New York Mets runs/G
3.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.23.6
Hits / game4.06.2
Home runs / game0.80.4
Walks drawn / game1.22.0
Batter K / game4.05.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.81.8
Pitching K / game2.62.6
Walks allowed / game0.41.4
L5 record2-33-2

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Mets won 2, Pittsburgh Pirates won 1.

DateNew York MetsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 9111New York Mets
Aug 809Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 764New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Mets Win (-116)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Pirates, there’s a compelling narrative brewing in Flushing that leans heavily in favor of New York. The Mets have been on a roll at home, showcasing a potent lineup that’s been finding ways to get on base and score consistently. Their recent surge is highlighted by a solid batting average that has them near the top of the league, along with key contributions from their stars. On the mound, the Mets' ace brings a strikeout rate that could stifle the Pirates' offense, which has struggled against high-velocity pitching. The Pirates, while scrappy, often falter against teams with strong bullpens, and New York's depth there could prove crucial late in the game. With the Mets’ recent form and the home-field advantage, they seem poised to take this one. Expect the Mets to capitalize on opportunities, making them a strong play on the moneyline.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Mets, or as Mets vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 26 March 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 13 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
New York Mets 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–11New York Mets
8 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–0Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–6New York Mets
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