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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:52PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar 2026, 5:15PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Mets -2.5 (Spread)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 35.3%, fair odds 2.83, book price +340, model edge +12.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 26 Mar 2026, 5:15PM at Citi Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Mets
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Chris Devenski RPOut
  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Bubba Chandler SP

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Joey Bart Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Marcus Semien TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.7implied team total
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 3.2 runs per game (2-3) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 3.6 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.2
New York Mets runs/G
3.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.23.6
Hits / game4.06.2
Home runs / game0.80.4
Walks drawn / game1.22.0
Batter K / game4.05.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.81.8
Pitching K / game2.62.6
Walks allowed / game0.41.4
L5 record2-33-2

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Deep dive into New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Mets Win (-116)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Pirates, there’s a compelling narrative brewing in Flushing that leans heavily in favor of New York. The Mets have been on a roll at home, showcasing a potent lineup that’s been finding ways to get on base and score consistently. Their recent surge is highlighted by a solid batting average that has them near the top of the league, along with key contributions from their stars. On the mound, the Mets' ace brings a strikeout rate that could stifle the Pirates' offense, which has struggled against high-velocity pitching. The Pirates, while scrappy, often falter against teams with strong bullpens, and New York's depth there could prove crucial late in the game. With the Mets’ recent form and the home-field advantage, they seem poised to take this one. Expect the Mets to capitalize on opportunities, making them a strong play on the moneyline.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Mets +1.5 (-204)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets gear up to face the Pirates, recent trends heavily favor the home team. New York has been dynamite at the plate, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten outings, and their lineup showcases a mix of power and discipline that can rattle even the toughest pitchers. On the mound, the Mets' starter has been a revelation, boasting a stellar ERA while consistently racking up strikeouts, making life difficult for opposing batters. Pittsburgh, while showing flashes of promise, has struggled to find consistent offense, particularly against top-tier pitching. Their recent road woes compound the challenge, as they’ve dropped several games by multiple runs. With the Mets’ potent offense and solid pitching, a 1.5 run line feels like a calculated bet. Expect New York to capitalize on their home field advantage and push past the Pirates, securing a win by at least two runs.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 7.5 Total Runs (+122)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets prepare to host the Pirates, the stage is set for a potential run fest. Both teams have shown a propensity for offensive fireworks recently. The Mets, with their powerful lineup, are riding a wave of momentum, scoring an impressive 5.6 runs per game over their last ten outings. Meanwhile, the Pirates have found their rhythm as well, averaging around 4.8 runs during the same stretch. On the mound, the Mets’ starter has struggled to contain opposing bats, yielding a .290 batting average against. The Pirates' lineup, hungry for runs, is poised to capitalize on any mistakes. Combine this with the fact that the Mets' home games have often turned into slugfests, and it’s hard to ignore the potential for the scoreboard to light up. With a total set at 7.5, the Over seems like a compelling play as both teams look to bring their hitting prowess to the forefront.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Mets +1.5 (-213)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets gear up to host the Pirates, the stage is set for a statement win. New York has been on a roll, recently showcasing an impressive blend of power and precision at the plate—ranking among the league leaders in runs scored. Their lineup, fueled by a surge in offensive production, is ready to capitalize on any pitching missteps from Pittsburgh. Speaking of pitching, the Mets’ starter has been a force, consistently shutting down opponents while boasting a stellar strikeout rate. In contrast, the Pirates’ rotation has struggled to find consistency, often yielding big innings. Given the Mets’ strong home record and their recent trend of dominating weaker lineups, laying the 1.5 runs feels like a savvy move. With New York's current momentum and the Pirates' uphill battle to keep pace, expect a comfortable win, making the Mets a compelling choice on the alternate run line.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-120)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As we gear up for the showdown between the New York Mets and the Pittsburgh Pirates, there’s a compelling case for taking the over on 6.5 runs. The Mets’ offense has found its groove lately, boasting a collective batting average that’s been climbing consistently. With their big hitters stepping up, they can capitalize on any pitching slip-ups from the Pirates. On the flip side, the Pirates’ rotation has been shaky, allowing more than their fair share of runs in recent outings. With both teams showing vulnerabilities on the mound—especially the Pirates’ inconsistent starters—it’s hard to see this game staying under the total. Given the Mets’ recent scoring surge and Pittsburgh’s struggles to contain opposing lineups, expect a lively afternoon at the plate. The combination of these factors makes the over a tantalizing bet worth considering as both teams aim to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 7 Total Runs (-105)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Pirates, all signs point to a lively night at the plate. New York has been on a hitting spree, averaging nearly five runs per game over their last series, showcasing a lineup that's suddenly come alive. With players like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor stepping up, the Mets have the firepower to challenge any pitcher. On the other side, the Pirates have shown a tendency to give up runs, particularly against teams with potent offenses. Their bullpen struggles have been evident, leading to late-inning fireworks that could easily push this game over the total. With the weather favorable for hitting and both lineups in decent form, taking the Over on 7 feels like a strong play. Expect a competitive game where both teams find ways to score, making this a prime candidate for a high-scoring affair.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
26 Mar 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Mets -1.5 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Mets -3.5 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Mets -2.5 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Mets 1.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 26 March 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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