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Model picks & player props
Miami Marlins
VS
Detroit Tigers

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:52PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 5:10PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Miami Marlins -2.5 (Spread)
For Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers (MLB), model win probability 31.3%, fair odds 3.19, book price +350, model edge +9.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 11 Apr 2026, 5:10PM at Comerica Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Miami Marlins
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Marlins

  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Owen Caissie RFOut
  • John King RPOut
  • Josh Ekness RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut

Probable pitcher

Tyler Phillips SP

Detroit Tigers

  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFDay-to-day
  • Javier Baez SSOut
  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Casey Mize SPDay-to-day
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Framber Valdez SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 12:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L53-2

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L53-2ATS5-7

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Miami MarlinsNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
2.4implied team total
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L53-2

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 2.8 runs per game (2-3) while Miami Marlins are at 3.4 (2-3); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Miami Marlins.

2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
3.4
Miami Marlins runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersMiami Marlins
Runs / game2.83.4
Hits / game6.24.6
Home runs / game0.20.4
Walks drawn / game1.20.8
Batter K / game4.42.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.61.8
Pitching K / game2.44.0
Walks allowed / game0.82.0
L5 record2-32-3

Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins stats and odds.</p>

Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins : Miami Marlins -1.5 (+215)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins : Miami Marlins +1 (-130)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins : Miami Marlins -1 (+158)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins : Over 9 Total Runs (+174)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-102)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins : Miami Marlins +1.5 (-185)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
11 Apr 26 Moneyline Miami Marlins ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Miami Marlins -1.5 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Miami Marlins -2.5 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Miami Marlins -3.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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