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The latest Bet Better model pick for David Peterson is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +5.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 20, 4:01AM UTC
MLB

David Peterson

NYM

+5.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1250 (1.08)
+5.2% Edge
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Tue 23 Sep, 11:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
97.8%
Implied Probability
92.6%
Model Edge
+5.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed97.8%—92.6%1.02+5.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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David Peterson (NYM) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Peterson for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Peterson's average hits allowed in his last five overall games stand at 4.6, almost double the line set for this bet. Even when considering only his away games, his hits allowed average is 5, still significantly above the 2.5 line. His current hit streak for both overall and away games further supports this trend. Although his averages against the Cubs are slightly lower, they are still above the line at 3. It's also important to note that his innings pitched averages suggest he'll be on the mound long enough to allow more than 2.5 hits. These consistent patterns in Peterson's performance data make the Over 2.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak7L2085%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.550%
O 5.550%
O 6.540%
O 7.540%

David Peterson MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.570%
O 5.560%
O 6.550%
O 7.520%

David Peterson MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2085%
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

David Peterson MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
1.6avg earned runs · L5
Streak2L2060%

David Peterson MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
17.4avg outs · L5
Streak2L2065%

David Peterson MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

David Peterson (NYM) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for David Peterson is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.2% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 23 September at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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