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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Thu 25 Sep 2025, 7:40PM
20
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 14.5 (Total Runs)
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB), model win probability 28.4%, fair odds 3.52, book price +680, model edge +15.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 25 Sep 2025, 7:40PM at Chase Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Enrique Hernandez 1BOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Emmet Sheehan SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Carroll RFDay-to-day
  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut

Probable pitcher

Mitch Bratt SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Miguel Rojas LAD Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mookie Betts LAD Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Corbin Carroll ARI Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Freddie Freeman LAD Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ketel Marte ARI Batter - Doubles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles DodgersNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
3.3implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.6 runs per game (2-3) while Los Angeles Dodgers are at 4.4 (4-1); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 4.6 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Los Angeles Dodgers.

4.6
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
4.4
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers
Runs / game4.64.4
Hits / game7.45.8
Home runs / game1.21.2
Walks drawn / game3.83.2
Batter K / game9.27.8
Earned runs allowed / game4.63.6
Pitching K / game9.09.8
Walks allowed / game2.21.4
L5 record2-34-1

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.</p>

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers Win (-500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a solid bet for the Moneyline market in this match-up. The Dodgers have a lower average of runs allowed both overall and away (3.6 and 2.4 respectively) compared to the Diamondbacks' overall and home averages (5.2 and 2.8 respectively). This indicates a stronger defensive performance by the Dodgers. Additionally, while the Diamondbacks have a slightly higher average of runs scored at home (4.2), the Dodgers are not far behind with their away average (4.0). Furthermore, the Diamondbacks' recent form is inconsistent with a 2-3 overall record in their last five games, compared to the Dodgers' implied probability of 83.3%, suggesting a higher likelihood of a Dodgers' win. Therefore, the combined defensive strength and comparable offensive capabilities make the Dodgers a good bet for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers Win (-526)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the recommended bet for the Moneyline market, based on their superior defensive performance. Over the last five games, the Dodgers have consistently allowed fewer runs, with an average of 3.6 overall and 2.4 when playing away. This is significantly lower than the Arizona Diamondbacks' averages of 5.2 overall and 2.8 at home. Although the Diamondbacks have a slightly higher average of runs scored at home (4.2) compared to the Dodgers' away average (4.0), the Dodgers' stronger defense is more likely to limit the Diamondbacks' scoring opportunities. Additionally, the Dodgers' recent record against the Diamondbacks is positive at 3-2. This data suggests that the Dodgers have a strong chance of winning the game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 25 September 2025 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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