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Model picks & player props
MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Wed 19 Aug 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Miami Marlins
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies and backs Philadelphia Phillies -3 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $431.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Philadelphia Phillies
to win by more than 3 runs
Philadelphia Phillies -3 Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$43.10Best price+331
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win29.0%
The price says24.2%

The model graded 70 markets for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $431 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 19 Aug 2026, 6:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3 Long-shot29% chance +331
Spread Members only Long-shot21% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean55% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot24% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot27% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean46% chance Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 9 props Highup to 86% Members
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 87% Members
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 75% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 81% Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 80% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 86% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 92% Members
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 100% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies last met on Wed 19 Aug 2026: Philadelphia Phillies won 4-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Philadelphia Phillies
-3
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Marlins

  • Tyler Zuber RPOut
  • Jakob Marsee CFOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Pete Fairbanks RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Owen Caissie RFOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut
Availability updated Oct 8, 2:49PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Xavier Edwards MIA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Javier Sanoja Batter - Singles
J.T. Realmuto PHI Batter - Singles
Aaron Nola PHI Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
2.5runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Miami Marlins have won 3 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome
Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3ATLHome
L3–8ATLHome
W3–0ATLHome
L1–2CHCAway
W3–2CHCAway

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 1.6 runs per game (3-2) while Miami Marlins are at 0.4 (0-5); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Miami Marlins.

1.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
0.4
Miami Marlins runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Runs / game1.60.4
Hits / game3.63.0
Home runs / game0.20.4
Walks drawn / game1.40.4
Batter K / game2.21.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.02.2
Pitching K / game3.01.4
Walks allowed / game0.41.8
L5 record3-20-5

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 6, Miami Marlins won 4.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesMiami MarlinsWinner
Aug 1941Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1864Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1765Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 2968Miami Marlins
Jul 2801Miami Marlins
Jul 2778Miami Marlins
Jun 17412Miami Marlins
Jun 1682Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1570Philadelphia Phillies
May 410Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Tyler Zuber RPOUT
Jakob Marsee CFOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Pete Fairbanks RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Owen Caissie RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for August 20, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 20, 2026 our model has run Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 RBIs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Marlins vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Marlins. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 19 August 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 33–23 across the last 58 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Wed 19 Aug 2026, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: the Phillies won 4-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
19 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies4–1Philadelphia Phillies
18 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies
17 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies6–5Philadelphia Phillies
29 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins8–6Miami Marlins
28 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins1–0Miami Marlins
27 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins8–7Miami Marlins
17 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies4–12Miami Marlins
16 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies8–2Philadelphia Phillies
15 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies7–0Philadelphia Phillies
4 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins0–1Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

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