On Sunday 20 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 4.5 Total Goals, priced at -556 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-556)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the stage is set for a clash that could very well see the scoreboard remain modestly lit. Leeds, known for their attacking flair, have averaged just 1.4 goals per game in their last five outings, and even more telling is their recent home form, where they’ve scored an impressive 2.4 but also held opponents to a mere 0.6—a recipe for a low-scoring affair. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, is struggling to find the back of the net away from home, averaging just 1 goal while conceding 2.4. Both teams exhibit a distinct trend of underwhelming expected goals, suggesting they may cancel each other out. With Leeds’ home defensive solidity and Palace’s lack of attacking punch, betting on under 4.5 total goals feels like a wise move. Expect a tactical battle with minimal fireworks.

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-213)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the stage is set for a tightly contested affair. While Leeds has shown some promise at home, averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded in their last five matches at Elland Road, Crystal Palace's away form has been far from inspiring. With just one goal scored away in their last five outings, they’re struggling to find the net. Both teams have exhibited a tendency to stifle attacks rather than go all-out offensively, which is reflected in their low expected goals (xG) metrics—neither team has managed to generate much in that department recently. With Leeds averaging just 1.4 goals and Palace conceding 2.4 away, it seems likely we’ll see a match that stays under 3.5 total goals. Expect a battle of defenses rather than a shootout, making the 'Under' bet a prudent choice.

That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article