On Saturday 19 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United gears up to face Crystal Palace, it’s hard to envision a goal fest in this match. Recent trends paint a stark picture: Leeds has averaged just 1.4 goals in their last five outings, while Palace has managed a meager 1 goal per game on the road. Leeds’ home performances have been solid defensively, conceding only 0.6 goals at Elland Road. Moreover, both teams are struggling to create clear chances, reflected in their low xG figures. Leeds has only registered 0 in xG across their last five, and Palace’s attack has been equally uninspired. With both teams showing a tendency to keep things tight, the odds of exceeding 6.5 total goals seem slim. Expect a cagey affair, making the ‘Under 6.5’ a compelling option for this matchup.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Crystal Palace heads to Elland Road, the numbers paint a compelling picture for a Crystal Palace victory, particularly with a 3.5 handicap. Leeds has struggled defensively, averaging 2.4 goals conceded at home over their last five matches, while Palace’s away form, albeit shaky, has seen them secure a win alongside some hard-fought draws. Leeds may have a slight edge in attack with a home average of 2.4 goals, yet their inconsistency—evident in just two wins from their last five—suggests they might falter under pressure. Palace's recent performances against Leeds also show a tendency to keep matches tight, with their last five encounters ending in a mix of draws and slim margins. Given their low xG stats overall, this match could see Leeds struggling to find the net, making a Palace win with a 3.5 handicap a smart play.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Over 5.5 Total Corners (-2000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the stage is set for a corner count that could easily exceed 5.5. Leeds, known for their aggressive pressing and attacking style, has averaged a staggering 13.8 shots at home recently, resulting in about 4.6 corners per game. Their last five home matches showcased a relentless offensive push, contributing to their 2.4 goals per game while keeping opponents to just 0.6. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace, despite struggling on the road, has a knack for creating chances, reflected in their 10 shots per away match. They’ve conceded a hefty 2.4 goals per game away from home, hinting at a potential barrage from Leeds. With both teams' recent form suggesting an uptick in corner counts, betting on over 5.5 corners feels like an astute move in this matchup. Expect a lively affair with plenty of corners up for grabs!
That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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