Drake Baldwin (NA) Under 1.5 Hits (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Baltimore Orioles gear up to face the Atlanta Braves, all eyes will be on young phenom Drake Baldwin. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, his recent performance suggests he might struggle at the plate today. Baldwin has faced tough left-handed pitching, and with the Braves sending their ace to the mound, who boasts an impressive K/9 rate, he could find himself in a bind. Additionally, the Orioles' lineup has been inconsistent against elite pitchers, which bodes well for the Braves’ strategy. Baldwin’s recent outings have seen him hover below the 1.5 hit mark, especially against similar power arms. With the Braves playing tight defense and limiting extra-base hits, it's likely we're looking at a low-output game for him. Given these factors, betting the under on Baldwin's hits seems like a prudent call as he navigates a challenging matchup.

Brandon Young (NA) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Orioles host the Braves, all eyes will be on Brandon Young, but backing the 'Under 4.5' on his strikeouts could be a savvy play. Young has been solid this season, yet he faces a Braves lineup that thrives on making contact. Atlanta has the highest batting average in the league and often puts up runs without needing to chase strikeouts. Young's recent outings show a trend of fewer K’s, especially against teams with strong offensive prowess. With a model prediction of just 2.69 strikeouts, it’s clear that the matchup isn't favorable for a big strikeout day. Combine that with the Orioles' fluctuating bullpen performance, and you have a recipe for Young to pitch to contact rather than rack up Ks. Given these dynamics, the under feels like the smart play as the Orioles aim for a win while keeping the ball in play.

Michael Harris II (ATL) Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Orioles host the Braves, all eyes will be on Michael Harris II, but here’s where the narrative shifts. Harris has shown flashes of brilliance, yet lately, he’s been struggling to find consistent contact, especially against right-handed pitchers. The Orioles' pitching staff has been surprisingly effective, with their starters holding opponents to a .220 batting average over the last month. This trend is accentuated by the formidable right-hander they'll be facing. While Harris has the talent to break out, the numbers suggest he might not reach the 1.5 hits mark today. In fact, with a model prediction of just 0.74 hits and an implied probability of hitting the 'Under' at a striking 70.9%, the odds favor a quiet day at the plate for him. Expect the Orioles to use their solid pitching to keep Harris in check, making the 'Under' a savvy play in this matchup.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks