Cooper Lord (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cooper Lord is one of the most consistent disposal-getters in the competition right now, and the 14.5 line looks well short of where he's operating. His L5 away average sits at 17.6 disposals — 3.1 clear of the line — built on a solid blend of 10.2 kicks and 7.4 handballs per game away from home, with 283 metres gained suggesting he's finding ball and moving it effectively. The model projects 19 disposals here, implying a 1.8% edge against the 85.5% implied probability baked into the $1.17 price.
What really firms this up is the streak: Lord has cleared 14.5 in all seven of his last away games and 13 straight overall. Even his L5 head-to-head against Geelong (10.0) is the one soft spot, but that sample is narrow and his overall form trajectory is hard to argue with. At short odds, this is a volume-play edge rather than a value windfall — but the consistency underpins it.