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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 77 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 77%, implied 75%, edge +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 1:48PM UTC
AFL

Matt Roberts

Sydney Swans

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+1.5% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 19 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 21°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.7% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +1.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.7%75.2%1.30+1.5%

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AI Analysis

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Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) Over 14.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matt Roberts is poised to shine in disposals against North Melbourne at SCG. With a model predicting 18.2 disposals, a 1.5% edge, and recent averages of 17.4 disposals in his last 5 home games, he's primed to surpass the 14.5 line. His strong contested possessions and intercepts, coupled with a steady 71.7% disposal efficiency, indicate his ability to impact the game. Facing North Melbourne, against whom he has averaged 22 disposals in his last 5 home games, Roberts' consistency and current form make the Over 14.5 disposals a favorable bet. With a solid hit rate and recent streaks, he's a reliable choice for this prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Matt Roberts averaged 18.3 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

18.3
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Matt Roberts has cleared 15.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o15.540%
o16.540%
o18.530%
o20.520%
o22.510%
o24.510%
o26.50%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o31.50%
o33.50%
o35.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Matt Roberts is averaging 17.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.0
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Matt Roberts recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19053
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide18090
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS15013
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows310103
16 Aug 24Essendon21074
9 Aug 24Collingwood25034
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide20055
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs36183
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions23084
13 Jul 24North Melbourne22091
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 19 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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