Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:48AM UTC
AFL

Matt Roberts

Sydney Swans

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -303 (1.33)
+1.5% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 19 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.7%
Implied Probability
75.2%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.7%—75.2%1.30+1.5%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) Over 14.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matt Roberts is poised to shine in disposals against North Melbourne at SCG. With a model predicting 18.2 disposals, a 1.5% edge, and recent averages of 17.4 disposals in his last 5 home games, he's primed to surpass the 14.5 line. His strong contested possessions and intercepts, coupled with a steady 71.7% disposal efficiency, indicate his ability to impact the game. Facing North Melbourne, against whom he has averaged 22 disposals in his last 5 home games, Roberts' consistency and current form make the Over 14.5 disposals a favorable bet. With a solid hit rate and recent streaks, he's a reliable choice for this prop bet.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 14.5
14.8avg disposals L5
Home21vs Adelaide Crows18.3Season best36
O 13.590%
O 14.570%
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.550%
O 18.540%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 23 · hi 36 · lo 15
22233620252131151819

Matt Roberts has gone over 14.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.8 disposals, best 36).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 19 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.