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AFL

Matt Roberts

Sydney Swans

Value call

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: over 2.5 marks that pays $132 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
65 in 100
Predicted
4.0 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 65.1% · before adjusting for past results 77.0% · the book's price implies 75.8% · gap -10.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Matt Roberts
over 2.5 marks
Marks Over 2.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
Value call
HIGHWins about 65 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.20 Odds-312
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 65%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:20PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 21°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks77.0%65.1%75.8%1.54+1.2%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Matt Roberts Over 2.5 Marks (-312)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Sydney Swans have been strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging over 26 points ahead in their matches. Matt Roberts has been getting involved more than usual, and the Swans have a solid strategy that should help him rack up marks. Playing at the SCG should give the home team a bit of an advantage, too. Fremantle has also been winning, but they average fewer marks than Sydney. The risk here is that both teams are performing well, so it could be a close match. Still, with how Roberts has been playing, betting on him to get over 2.5 marks seems like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Matt Roberts averaged 18.3 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

18.3
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Matt Roberts recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19053
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide18090
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS15013
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows310103
16 Aug 24Essendon21074
9 Aug 24Collingwood25034
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide20055
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs36183
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions23084
13 Jul 24North Melbourne22091
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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