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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 65%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:17PM UTC
AFL

Matt Roberts

Sydney Swans

Value call

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: Marks Over 2.5 that pays $131 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 21°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
65 in 100
Predicted
4.0 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 65.0% · before adjusting for past results 76.9% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap -11.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks76.9%65.0%76.3%1.54+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Matt Roberts Over 2.5 Marks (-323)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Sydney Swans have been on a roll lately, winning seven of their last ten games. They've also been scoring a lot, averaging over 57 points before half-time in their past twelve matches. This means they are likely to keep the pressure on their opponents, which is great news for Matt Roberts when it comes to making marks in this game. Fremantle has also been performing well, winning seven of their last ten, but they have scored fewer points before half-time compared to the Swans. Given how strong the Swans have been, betting on Roberts to make more than 2.5 marks feels like a good pick. Just keep in mind that Fremantle could make it a tougher match than expected.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Matt Roberts averaged 18.3 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

18.3
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Matt Roberts recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19053
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide18090
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS15013
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows310103
16 Aug 24Essendon21074
9 Aug 24Collingwood25034
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide20055
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs36183
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions23084
13 Jul 24North Melbourne22091
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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